Reading FSUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSUN free→Reading FSUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSUN free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where FSUN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FSUN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 FSUN trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.73 → $0.73 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,715.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping positive net income is key for investor trust and future growth. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows net income above $1 million.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows net income below $1 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FSUN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, the Bank closed on the sale of approximately $890 million of performing multifamily commercial real estate loans acquired from First Foundation Bank to entities affiliated with Brookfield Asset Management. The loan sale was contemplated and announced as part of our acquisition of First Foundation Inc. (“First Foundation”), which closed on April 1, 2026, and we expect to complete the remainder of our previously disclosed balance sheet loan downsizing before the e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FSUN Firstsun Capital Bancorp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of First Foundation Inc. and integrate its assets.
Continue the previously disclosed balance sheet loan downsizing strategy.
Sustain positive net income amidst acquisition and loan downsizing activities.
Why it matters: Finishing this process is key for improving the company's financial health. It shows management's commitment to a leaner balance sheet.
Confirms:Management announces the completion of the balance sheet loan downsizing by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:No completion announcement by the end of Q3 2026 means there are delays.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal broader challenges in the financial sector. This affects investor sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the next quarter.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 5, 2026, FirstSun, the holding company for Sunflower Bank, National Association (the “Bank”), announced that the Bank closed on the sale of approximately $890 million of performing multifamily commercial real estate loans acquired from First Foundation Bank. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (the “Company”) issued an earnings press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The earnings press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Resignations As previously disclosed in our Current Reports on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on December 4, 2025 and January 23, 2026, respectively, Isabella Cunningham (a Class I director) and Diane L. Merdian (a Class III director) each announced her intent to resign from the Board effective on the earlier of the closing of the Merger or o…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On April 1, 2026, FirstSun completed its previously announced Merger with First Foundation, pursuant to the Merger Agreement. At the effective time of the Merger (the “ Effective Time ”), First Foundation merged with and into FirstSun, with FirstSun surviving the Merger. Immediately following the Merger, First Foundation Bank, a California-chartered banking corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of First Foundation, merged with and into Sun…