Reading FRST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRST free→Reading FRST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRST free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FRST cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 FRST trades at 19× p/e — 1.5× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $20 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.37 (+3.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$251.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,003.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions on interest rates change borrowing costs. This can affect how well the financial sector does.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, directors Robert Y. Clagett and Charles A. Kabbash did not stand for re-election at the annual meeting of stockholders held on May 21, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”) and, accordingly, were not included in the list of director nominations in the Definitive Proxy Statement on Schedule 14A (the “Proxy Statement”) of Primis Financ…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRST Primis Financial Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve robust profitability for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income improved from -$31.8M in 2025-Q4 to $7.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards profitability. Management's focus on robust profitability is delivering results.
“Our expectations for a robust level of profitability in 2026 are on track.”
“We believe positions us for robust full-year profitability in 2026.”
“The Company expects a gain of $38 million after tax or $1.54 per share.”
The company has authorized a stock repurchase program for up to 750,000 shares.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The stock repurchase program was announced to repurchase up to 750,000 shares. No buyback shares were reported in the financials, indicating limited progress on this initiative so far.
“The Board authorized a stock repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to 750,000 shares.”
The company has declared dividends payable to shareholders, maintaining capital allocation discipline.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company declared dividends payable, reflecting ongoing capital allocation discipline. However, no specific dividend per share amount was reported, indicating limited visibility into the financial impact.
“Primis issued a press release announcing the declaration of a dividend payable.”
Why it matters: Strong retail sales show how much people are spending. This affects demand for financial services.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth reported below 0% month over month.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence in Primis Financial.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Primis Financial Corp. (“Primis” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, Primis issued a press release announcing the declaration of a dividend payable on May 22, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 8, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Primis Financial Corp. (“Primis” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, Primis issued a press release announcing the declaration of a dividend payable on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
“Primis issued a press release announcing the declaration of a dividend payable.”