Reading FRAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRAF free→Reading FRAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRAF free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If FRAF cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 FRAF trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.44 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$253.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,628.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better earnings would show the company is doing well. This matches recent positive trends.
Confirms:The earnings report may show a big rise in the company momentum score above 17.8.
Disproves:Earnings report shows a decline in company momentum score below 17.8.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRAF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officer; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of Franklin Financial Services Corporation (the “Corporation”), parent bank holding company of Farmers and Merchants Trust Company of Chambersburg (the “Bank”), announced that Charles B. Carroll, Jr., Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer of the Bank has been promoted to President of the C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRAF Franklin Financial Services Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay regular cash dividends with slight increases.
Focus on growing net income consistently across quarters.
Focus on increasing earnings per share through operational improvements.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth falls below its median level.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth remains above its median level.
Results of Operations The news release of Franklin Financial Services Corporation, dated April 23, 2026 and attached as Exhibit 99.1, announces its earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Other Events On April 9, 2026, the Board of Directors of Franklin Financial Services Corporation declared a $.34 per share regular cash dividend for the second quarter of 2026. This compares to a $.33 per share regular cash dividend for the first quarter of 2026 and $.33 per share regular cash dividend for the second quarter of 2025, which represents an increase of 3.0% over the same quarter in 2025. The regular quarterly cash dividend will be paid May 27, 2026 to shareholders of record at th…
Results of Operations The news release of Franklin Financial Services Corporation, dated January 27, 2026 and attached as Exhibit 99.1, announces its earnings for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Other Events On January 15, 2026, the Board of Directors of Franklin Financial Services Corporation declared a $.33 per share regular cash dividend for the first quarter of 2026. This compares to a $.33 per share regular cash dividend for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $.32 per share regular cash dividend for the first quarter of 2025, which represents an increase of 3.1% over prior year. The regular quarterly cash dividend will be paid February 25, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close…