Reading FGBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FGBI free→Reading FGBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FGBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is due to weak recent financials and fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 FGBI trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.09 (+28.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$459.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,268.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'high'.
Risk rose. The risk label changed to "high." The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This dividend shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It also shows good financial health.
Confirms:The dividend is paid on time to shareholders of record as of June 26, 2026.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FGBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 21, 2026 the Board of Directors of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. ("First Guaranty") declared a quarterly cash dividend on First Guaranty's outstanding shares of common stock of $0.01 per share. The dividend will be payable to shareholders of record as of June 26, 2026 and is expected to be paid on June 30, 2026. This is the 132nd consecutive quarterly dividend paid to common shareholders. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FGBI First Guaranty Bancshares Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the long-standing practice of paying quarterly dividends to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing net income through operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
Increase cash flow from operations to support business growth and stability.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its historical median of around 15 percent.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data can affect how much people spend. It also affects the bank's loans. This data is an important economic sign.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims go down. This means the job market is getting stronger.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims go up. This suggests the economy is getting weaker.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. released its First Quarter 2026 Report to shareholders. The Press Release is enclosed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results at and for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The Press Release is enclosed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On April 29, 2026, First Guaranty Bank (the “Bank”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (“First Guaranty”), purchased three properties owned by FGB Partners, LLC (“FGB Partners”), two stand-alone branches and a portion of the headquarters building which also contains a branch (collectively, the “Properties”), for an aggregate cash purchase price of $14,770,000. The Properties were initially sold to FGB Partners on June 2…
Other Events On April 16, 2026 the Board of Directors of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. ("First Guaranty") announced that on June 1, 2026, holders of record as of May 15, 2026 (the "Depository Shares Record Date") of its depositary shares (the "Depositary Shares"), each representing a 1/40th interest in the Corporation's 6.75% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the "Series A Preferred Stock"), will receive a quarterly distribution in the amount of $0.421875 per Dep…