Reading ECBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ECBK free→Reading ECBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ECBK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record has been steady. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, ECBK is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 ECBK trades at 17× p/e — 1.4× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $19 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 7.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$232.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt ECB Bancorp's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ECBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, ECB Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Everett Co-operative Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results at and for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by refe…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ECBK ECB Bancorp Inc/MD | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, ECB Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Everett Co-operative Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results at and for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorp…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 17, 2025, the Board of Directors of ECB Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and Everett Co-operative Bank (the “Bank”) approved an amendment to the Change in Control Agreement, dated as of December 21, 2022, by and between the Bank, the Company and John Migliozzi, Executive Vice President and Chief Lending Officer of the Company and the Bank (…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 22, 2025, ECB Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Everett Co-operative Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results at and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 24, 2025, ECB Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Everett Co-operative Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results at and for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated b…