Reading CTBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTBI free→Reading CTBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while CTBI trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69 CTBI trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $60 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 16% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.51 → $1.52 (+0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,248.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may hurt investor confidence in Community Trust Bancorp.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years, indicating a slowdown.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median, showing continued strength in the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Anticipated Retirement On May 4, 2026, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the planned retirement of Executive Vice President, Richard W. Newsom, effective as of February 5, 2027. Mr. Newsom currently serves and will continue to serve as Executive Vice President of the Company and President of Community Trust Bank, Inc., the Comp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTBI Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Community Trust Bancorp aims to achieve an EPS of $5.90 for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $5.90. In 2025, EPS was $0.83 above the prior year, indicating a focus on maintaining growth. The trajectory shows a commitment to achieving the 2026 target, but financials for 2026-Q1 show a diluted EPS of $1.50, suggesting progress is needed to meet the annual goal.
“For 2026, the targeted (base) ROAA is established as follows: ROAA of 1.56% and EPS of $5.90.”
“Earnings for the year 2025 were a record $98.1 million, $15.2 million, or $0.83 per basic share, above prior year.”
Community Trust Bancorp continues to maintain a dividend per share of $0.53.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.47 in 2025-Q2 to $0.53 in 2026-Q1, reflecting a stable capital allocation strategy. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain this dividend level, indicating a focus on shareholder returns.
Community Trust Bancorp aims to maintain stable operating income levels.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $30.89 million in 2025-Q3 to $35.3 million in 2026-Q1, showing stability and slight growth. The company is delivering on its focus to maintain stable operating income levels, indicating effective cost management.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can indicate economic health. Rising claims may signal trouble for banks like Community Trust Bancorp.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than in previous weeks. This shows economic stress.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same. This suggests economic strength.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 15, 2026, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements On January 27, 2026, the Board approved the following actions, which were approved by the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) and recommended to the Board: • Base Salary Increases. New annual base salaries were approved for the following named executive officers (“NEOs”): Mark A. Gooch (Chairman, President, and Chief Ex…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On January 27, 2026, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.’s (“CTBI”) Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved the Employee Incentive Compensation Plan for the year ending December 31, 2026, which is included under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 21, 2026, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to
“Dividend per share remains at $0.53 as of the latest quarter.”
“Dividend per share is $0.53.”
“Dividend per share is $0.47.”
“Operating income for 2026-Q1 was $35.3 million, consistent with previous quarters.”
“Operating income was $35.36 million.”
“Operating income was $30.89 million.”