Reading CPF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPF free→Reading CPF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPF free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 CPF trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.78 (-2.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$213.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,230.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a shift in the assessment of potential volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled at $0.29 per share.
Disproves:The dividend is cut or not paid.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Central Pacific Financial Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPF Central Pacific Financial Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net income through operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
Commitment to maintaining a stable dividend per share to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Aim to enhance operating income through efficiency improvements and revenue growth.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows problems with making money. Investors might react badly.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $20 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported above $20 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is doing well. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company keeps or raises the dividend per share in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut or suspended in the Q2 earnings announcement.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows strong financial health. It helps management focus on making more money.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $20.7 million reported for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 net income falls below $20.7 million.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net interest margin shows good handling of loans and deposits.
Confirms one read:Q2 net interest margin exceeds 3.53% reported for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 net interest margin falls below 3.53%.
Why it matters: Growth in total loans is a sign of demand and effective lending strategies.
Confirms:Total loans exceed $5.32 billion reported for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Total loans decrease or remain stagnant.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it could signal a sector-wide issue.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above its median for the sector.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in earnings and cash flow. It may boost investor sentiment.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $0.29 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend from the current $0.29 per share.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On September 30, 2025, A. Catherine Ngo, a director on Central Pacific Financial Corp.'s (the "Company") Board of Directors, and a director on Central Pacific Bank's (the "Bank", wholly owned subsidiary of the Company) Board of Directors, informed the Company and the Bank that she is resigning from the Company's Board of Directors and the Bank's Boa…