Reading CPBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPBI free→Reading CPBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, CPBI is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 CPBI trades at 18× p/e — 1.5× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $17 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$46.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$135.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $495.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On July 22, 2025, the Board of Directors of Home Federal Savings and Loan Association of Grand Island, the wholly-owned subsidiary of Central Plains Bancshares, Inc. extended the terms of the Change in Control Agreements with each of Lisa Harris, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Kurt Haecker, Executive Vice President and Chi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPBI Central Plains Bancshares Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Central Plains Bancshares is doing. They will also hint at future performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected earnings growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weaker than expected earnings growth.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and lending rules. This affects how banks perform.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, boosting bank margins.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates, squeezing bank margins.