Reading COFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COFS free→Reading COFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COFS free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from COFS and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 COFS trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.88 (+1.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,527.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The earnings quality remains fragile, suggesting ongoing concerns in that area. The overall context is provisional, reflecting uncertainty in the current assessment.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COFS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 24, 2026, ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is here incorporated by reference. This Report and the Exhibit are furnished to, and not filed with, the Commission.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COFS ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Important economic reports can change how the financial sector looks. They also affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows stronger than expected growth.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows weaker than expected growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is here incorporated by reference. This Report and the Exhibit are furnished to, and not filed with, the Commission.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 24, 2025, ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is here incorporated by reference. This Report and the Exhibit are furnished to, and not filed with, the Commission.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 25, 2025, ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is here incorporated by reference. This Report and the Exhibit are furnished to, and not filed with, the Commission.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 25, 2025, ChoiceOne’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Steven T. Krause as director, effective July 5, 2025, to fill the vacancy left by Jack Hendon’s retirement. The Board determined that Mr. Krause is independent under the listing standards of the Nasdaq Stock Market. It is expected that Mr. Krause will serve on the Audit and Ri…