Reading CNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNC free→Reading CNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNC free→NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CNC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 CNC trades at 25× p/e — 1.3× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $51 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $39–$80. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.05 (-0.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 10 cut, 17 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.1% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$449.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it shows strong earnings and management's confidence.
Confirms:Management raises the adjusted EPS guidance above $3.40 in the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers the adjusted EPS guidance to below $3.40.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Debt reduction by $1 billion in Q1 2026
Employee buyouts amid membership decline could hinder debt reduction.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On May 12, 2026, in connection with the previously announced appointments of Daniel Finke as Group President, Medicaid and Marketplace and Michael Carson as Group President, Medicare and Specialty, the Board of Directors determined that the following individuals are the Company's executive officers: Sarah London, Chief Executive Officer; Drew Asher,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $80.00 (median $58.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | elevated |
MOH Molina Healthcare | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Centene aims to increase its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to greater than $3.40.
Centene plans to increase its 2026 revenue guidance by $1 billion.
Centene aims to reduce its debt by $1 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Centene aims to achieve an adjusted diluted EPS greater than $3.00 for the full year 2026.
Centene plans to increase its investment and other income by $50 million to $1.45 billion.
Why it matters: The HBR indicates how well Centene manages medical costs. A lower HBR suggests better cost management.
Confirms:Q2 2026 Medicaid HBR is below 93.0%. This shows better cost management.
Disproves:Q2 2026 Medicaid HBR is above 93.0%. This means cost management is getting worse.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps with financial stability and growth.
Confirms:Centene reports an additional $1 billion in debt reduction by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Debt levels remain unchanged or increase in Q2 2026.
Threatens: Debt reduction by $1 billion in Q1 2026
Buyouts may hinder debt reduction efforts.
shall be deemed to be furnished and not filed: 99.1 Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026, as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. EXHIBIT INDEX Exhibit Number Description 99.1* Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026 as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 104 Cover page information from Centene Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 28, 2026 formatted in Inline Extensible Business…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS Effective March 18, 2026, the Board of Directors (the Board) of Centene Corporation (the Company) appointed Theodore Pienkos, 44, a registered CPA, to serve as the Company's Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Pienkos previously has served as the Company's Deputy Corporate Controller since August 2024. Prior to that, he served as…
OTHER EVENTS On March 10, 2026, the Company delivered a notice of partial redemption to redeem on March 25, 2026 (the redemption date) $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 4.25% Notes due December 15, 2027 (the 2027 Notes) in accordance with the terms of the 2027 Notes and the Indenture dated as of December 6, 2019 between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. as trustee. Following the redemption, approximately $1,186,664,000 of the 2027 Notes…
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE Centene Corporation (the Company) will be presenting at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. A simultaneous live audio webcast of the presentation on March 10 will be available at https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1753406&tp_key=d357b0a0a7&tp_special=8. A webcast replay will be available following the presentation via the Company's website at www.centene.com, under the Investors section. During t…