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Clover Health Investments Corp. (CLOV)
NASDAQHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$4.94+2.70%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
CLOV screens as a strong quality-and-value setup, with recent financial performance being strong, though management's track record is neutral and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CLOV's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Market cap
- $2.53B
- Employees
- 724
- IPO date
- 2020-02-28
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$5.71consensus
Range $3.84 – $7.57
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$7.82consensus
Range $7.82 – $7.82
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $4.94 CLOV trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $5.79 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.3x
peer 2.5x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$5.79
range $3.88 – $7.70
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
72nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.01x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish1 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.05 → $0.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$484.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for legal outcome on 2026 Star Rating
Why it matters: The court ruling on the Star Rating impacts future payments and overall financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Court ruling confirms a higher Star Rating for Clover Insurance.
Disproves:Court ruling maintains or lowers the 2026 Star Rating.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLOV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, CVS, and ELV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CLOV and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CLOV raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-18), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CLOV and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CLOV cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-18), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, CVS, and ELV start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CLOV and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, the United States District Court for the Southern District of Georgia entered final judgment in Clover Insurance Co. v. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2:25-CV-142, granting summary judgment in part for Clover Insurance Company (“Clover”), a subsidiary of Clover Health Investments, Corp. At issue in the lawsuit was Clover’s 2026 Star Rating, which impacts Payment Year 2027. The Court set aside Clover’s 2026 3.5 Star Rating for Contract H5141 and or…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.