Reading CLOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLOV free→Reading CLOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
CLOV screens as a strong quality-and-value setup, with recent financial performance being strong, though management's track record is neutral and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CLOV's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.94 CLOV trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $5.79 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.01x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.05 → $0.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$484.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The court ruling on the Star Rating impacts future payments and overall financial health.
Confirms:Court ruling confirms a higher Star Rating for Clover Insurance.
Disproves:Court ruling maintains or lowers the 2026 Star Rating.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLOV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, the United States District Court for the Southern District of Georgia entered final judgment in Clover Insurance Co. v. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2:25-CV-142, granting summary judgment in part for Clover Insurance Company (“Clover”), a subsidiary of Clover Health Investments, Corp. At issue in the lawsuit was Clover’s 2026 Star Rating, which impacts Payment Year 2027. The Court set aside Clover’s 2026 3.5 Star Rating for Contract H5141 and or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q1, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLOV Clover Health Investments Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Clover aims to achieve GAAP profitability for the full year 2026.
Clover targets a 46% year-over-year growth in Medicare Advantage membership by the end of 2026.
Clover aims to increase total revenues by 49% year-over-year in 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for achieving the 49% increase target for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 total revenues increase year over year by more than 15%.
Disproves:Total revenues grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key to achieving the 46% target for 2026. Strong growth supports the overall strategy.
Confirms:In Q2, Medicare Advantage membership grew by more than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Membership growth is below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for p…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Financial Officer Transition On March 30, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the “Company”) approved a transition of the Chief Financial Officer role. As part of this transition, effective immediately, Mr. Peter Kuipers has stepped down from his role as the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, i…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall no…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 16, 2025, Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Toy, will present at the 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Thursday, January 15, 2026, at 11:15 a.m. Eastern Time. A live webcast of the presentation will be accessible through the investor relations section of the Company’s website. The slide presentation to be used during the presentation is attached hereto…