Molina Healthcare (MOH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-14
$214.07+4.82%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put MOH beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Health Care is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — premium revenue of approximately $42 billion in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance not quantified in evidence; Q1/Q2 FY26 YoY revenue -4.0%/-6.0% vs ~$42B target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 3% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 40% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMolina Healthcare must expand Medicaid membership to justify its price. The company has strong recent results and a solid growth trajectory. Revenue guidance for 2026 is approximately $42 billion. It trades at 69× P/E versus a peer median of 22×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. The primary risk is a potential guidance cut after a recent raise. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 28%. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. MOH is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering MOH (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MOH in the last 4 months.
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Compare MOH with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOH Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Managed Health Care — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MOH next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Reaffirm full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance
Strong Q1 results support full-year premium revenue guidance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $214.07
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $214.07.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand Medicaid membership via Illinois contract
Medicaid clarity supports expansion of membership via Illinois contract.
Advances: Expand Medicaid membership via Illinois contract
Medicaid clarity supports expansion of membership via Illinois contract.
Threatens: Strategic exit of Medicare Advantage Part D product
2027 ACA pullback may impact growth and revenue guidance.
Advances: Expand Medicaid membership via Illinois contract
Strong Medicaid performance supports growth objective.
Advances: Reaffirm full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance
Lifting profit forecast indicates strong earnings outlook.
Threatens: Reaffirm full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance
Lower profit and revenue may hinder revenue growth.
Threatens: Reaffirm full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance
Weak guidance suggests potential issues with earnings growth.