Centene Corporation (CNC)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-15

$69.16-1.91%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Centene Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.26 → 5.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS > $3.40 in FY26	Adjusted EPS is guided above $3.40 for 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EPS falls below $3.40 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance floor increased from greater than $3.00 in 2025-Q4 to greater than $4.80 in 2026-Q2. Actual adjusted diluted EPS grew from negative in 2025-Q4 to $2.51 in 2026-Q2, showing delivering trajectory toward the guidance floor. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Reduce debt by $1 billion in Q1 2026	The company reduced debt by $1 billion in Q1 2026.	Intact	Debt reduction less than $1 billion in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 27-28% in FY26	Profit margins remain stable near 27%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 27% in FY26	Operating margin: 2.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=27.0 PERCENT. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 27, 20262.235951 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2dbf3128-40e7-45a6-aec3-3105be696eb4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $187-190 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Centene Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=186.5 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $186.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $53.579B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=186.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 202653,579,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2dbf3128-40e7-45a6-aec3-3105be696eb4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.30

$4.48 → $5.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$193.05B

$191.07B → $193.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.48	$191,074,303,810	21 / 14
2026-07-25	$4.52	$191,300,977,824	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$4.48	$191,074,303,810	21 / 14
2026-07-27	$4.48	$191,074,303,810	21 / 14
2026-07-28	$4.48	$191,074,303,810	21 / 14
2026-07-29	$4.90	$192,883,130,993	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.05	$193,243,267,371	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.12	$192,627,349,724	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.12	$192,627,349,724	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$5.12	$192,627,349,724	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.16	$192,482,447,590	21 / 14
2026-08-04	$5.12	$192,627,349,724	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$5.22	$192,778,376,160	21 / 14
2026-08-06	$5.22	$192,778,376,160	21 / 14
2026-08-07	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$5.25	$193,589,193,840	21 / 14
2026-08-09	$5.25	$193,589,193,840	21 / 14
2026-08-10	$5.25	$193,589,193,840	21 / 14
2026-08-11	$5.25	$193,589,193,840	21 / 14
2026-08-12	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$5.30	$193,589,193,840	21 / 14
2026-08-14	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-15	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$5.20	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$5.27	$193,538,801,874	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-22	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-23	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-24	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-25	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-26	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-27	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-28	$5.26	$193,472,138,005	12 / 12
2026-08-29	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-08-30	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-08-31	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-01	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-02	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.26	$193,472,127,342	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.26	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.26	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$5.26	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$5.26	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$5.30	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$5.30	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$5.30	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$5.30	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$5.30	$193,472,127,341	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.30	$193,122,009,694	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$5.30	$193,046,421,458	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.30	$193,046,615,576	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.30	$193,046,637,570	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.30	$193,046,637,570	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	13	1
2026-06-01	7	13	1
2026-07-01	8	13	1
2026-08-01	9	12	1
2026-09-01	9	12	1
2026-10-01	8	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS > $3.40 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce debt by $1 billion in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Operating margin near 27-28% in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue near $187-190 billion in FY26Revenue: $53.579B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Centene Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CNC represents a durable compounder with a focus on improving earnings and revenue. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to guidance increases.

What's priced into Centene Corporation

The market currently prices CNC as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious about future performance, reflecting a justified valuation despite the company's recent strength.

What the fundamentals likely do

CNC's fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is on track to meet its adjusted EPS and revenue guidance. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent litigation and a volatile management situation, which could impact performance.

What Centene Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for CNC to maintain or increase guidance in upcoming calls, the performance of sector peers like UNH and CVS, and the overall economic environment impacting healthcare demand.