NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Centene aims to grow revenue to about $190 billion in 2026. Adjusted EPS is guided above $3.40 for 2026. The company reduced debt by $1 billion in Q1 2026. Profit margins remain stable near 27%.
Membership losses and staff buyouts may hurt revenue growth. Guidance was recently cut despite an EPS beat. Debt reduction efforts could be challenged by buyouts.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $60. Analysts expect about 2.4% revenue decline next year, while we see modest growth. The market is stretched but justified over 3-5 years.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $3.40 in FY26
Breaks if: Debt reduction less than $1 billion in Q1 2026
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 27% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CNC represents a cyclical investment in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it faces volatility in management and elevated risks.
The market appears to have priced in a valuation that is cheap compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may be cautious about future growth. The current valuation suggests that the market does not expect significant upside in earnings or revenue beyond what has already been communicated.
Management is on track to meet its guidance for adjusted diluted EPS and total revenue, with recent results showing improvement. However, there is a risk of earnings surprises trending down, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH and CVS, which could influence CNC's momentum. Additionally, any cuts to guidance in upcoming calls could negatively affect investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to over $3.40. It also increased its revenue guidance by $1 billion. These changes reinforce the growth targets for the company.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $186.5 billion in FY26
Centene plans to increase its 2026 revenue guidance by $1 billion.
CNC's performance is currently supported by strong fundamentals, but the elevated risks and management volatility warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.
