Reading CBAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 CBAN trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.48 (-4.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,276.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect Colony Bankcorp's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, Colony Bankcorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, as well as the announcement of a regular quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBAN Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to issue a regular quarterly cash dividend as part of capital allocation strategy.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.1125 in 2024-Q3 to $0.12 in 2026-Q1, indicating a consistent commitment to returning value to shareholders. The trajectory shows delivering on this capital allocation priority.
“Announcing its consolidated financial results... as well as the announcement of a regular quarterly cash dividend.”
“Announcing its consolidated financial results... as well as the announcement of a regular quarterly cash dividend.”
“Announcing its consolidated financial results... as well as the announcement of a regular quarterly cash dividend.”
Extend the stock buyback program to repurchase up to $12 million of outstanding common stock.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company announced an extension of its stock buyback program to repurchase up to $12 million of its outstanding common stock. However, there is no evidence of actual buybacks occurring in the financials, indicating limited progress on this priority.
“Board of Directors authorized the extension of the stock buyback program approved in October 2022.”
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026 , Colony Bankcorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as well as the announcement of a regular quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 24, 2026, Colony Bank (“Bank”), a Georgia Bank and wholly-owned subsidiary of Colony Bankcorp, Inc. (the “Holding Company” and, together with the Bank, the “Company”), entered into an employment agreement with Derek Shelnutt (“Employee”), to continue as the Chief Financial Officer of both the Holding Company and the Bank (the “Employment…
Other Events On December 18, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized the extension of the stock buyback program approved in October 2022, under which the Company may repurchase up to $12 million of its outstanding common stock. Repurchases under this program may be made from time to time through open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions or such other manners as will comply with applicable laws and regulations. The timing and actual number of shares repurchased wi…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets Effective December 1, 2025, Colony Bankcorp, Inc., a Georgia corporation (“CBAN” or the “Company”) and the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Colony Bank, completed the previously announced merger (the "Merger") with TC Bancshares, Inc., a Georgia corporation (“TCBC”), and TCBC’s wholly-owned subsidiary, TC Federal Bank. At the effective time of the Merger (the "Effective Time"), TCBC merged with and into CBAN, with CBAN as the surviving enti…