Reading BY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BY free→Reading BY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BY free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 BY trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.77 → $0.78 (+1.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -7.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,264.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This can change how Byline Bancorp lends.
Confirms:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are higher than the last two weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims go down or stay steady at lower levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on May 26, 2023, Byline Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Second Amended and Restated Term Loan and Revolving Credit Agreement with CIBC Bank USA (the “Lender”). As also previously disclosed, on May 24, 2024, the Company entered into the First Amendment to the Second Amended and Restated Term Loan and Revolving Credit Agreement (the “First Amendment") with the Lender, which was effective May 26, 2024, and provided…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining earnings per share growth through operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.
Focus on optimizing capital allocation through strategic financial obligations and agreements.
Aim to boost cash flow from operations to support growth and financial stability.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Byline Bancorp's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This may change how Byline Bancorp lends and takes deposits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates during the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Byline Bancorp, Inc., (“Byline" or the "Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On April 23, 2026, the Company made available on its website a slide presentation regarding the Company’s first quarter 2026 financial results, which will be used as part of a publicly…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 22, 2026, Byline Bancorp, Inc., (“Byline" or the "Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On January 22, 2026, the Company made available on its website a slide presentation regarding the Company’s fourth quarter 2025 financial results, which will be used as part of a…
Other Events. On December 11, 2025, Byline Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase program authorizing the purchase of up to an aggregate of 2,250,000 shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock over a year period ending December 31, 2026. Under the new program, shares may, at the discretion of management, be repurchased from time to time in open market purchases as market conditions warrant or in privately negotiated transactio…