Reading BSBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BSBK free→Reading BSBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BSBK free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BSBK trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 151% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.11, BSBK's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 55× p/e (4.5× the 12× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~151% near-term growth vs our ~3% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.60 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 151% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,412.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report can change how people spend money. It can affect financial results.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up a lot. This shows that people are spending more.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down. This shows that people are spending less.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BSBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 31, 2026, Bogota Financial Corp. (the “Company”), the parent company of Bogota Savings Bank (the “Bank”), and Bogota Financial, MHC, the Company’s mutual holding company parent (the “MHC” and, together with the Company and the Bank, the “Bogota Entities”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with GSL Savings Bank, pursuant to which GSL Savings Bank will merge with and into the Bank, with the Bank as the survivi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BSBK Bogota Financial Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the merger with GSL Savings Bank to expand market presence.
Focus on improving EPS as indicated by guidance and recent performance.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates. This can affect market feelings and financial stocks.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows there are worries about the economy.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop signals weakening performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As disclosed above, the Bank and Mr. Giancola have entered into an employment agreement that will become effective as of, and be contingent on, the closing of the Merger. The employment agreement is for a two-year term commencing on the effective date of the Merger and sets forth the terms and conditions of Mr. Giancola’s employment with the Bank fo…
Other Events On June 1, 2026, the Company and GSL Savings Bank issued a joint press release announcing that the Bogota Entities and GSL Savings Bank had entered into the Merger Agreement. The joint press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains certain forward-looking statements about the Bogota Entities and GSL Savings Bank. Forward-looking statements inclu…
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Bogota Financial Corp., the holding company for Bogota Savings Bank, issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers’ Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 25, 2026, Robert Walsh, Executive Vice President and Chief Lending Officer of Bogota Savings Bank (the “Bank”), the wholly owned subsidiary of Bogota Financial Corp. (the “Company”), notified the Company and the Bank of his intention to retire from his position with the Bank, effective March 31, 2026. On March 31, 2026, the Bank entered int…