Reading BOTJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOTJ free→Reading BOTJ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOTJ free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BOTJ trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 BOTJ trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$52.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $882.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from fair to full. Risk rose, indicating an elevated level of risk. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the environment. The overall confidence in the assessment is medium, and the situation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects Bank of the James's loans and profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates the same or lowers them. This shows a loose monetary policy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOTJ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 .
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOTJ Bank of the James Financial Group Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect investor confidence in Bank of the James.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last three years.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can signal economic weakness. This may affect Bank of the James's loan performance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Other Events On April 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share of common stock. The dividend will be paid on or about June 5, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on May 22, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31 , 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 .
Other Events On January 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share of common stock. The dividend will be paid on or about March 6, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 17, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On January 5, 2026, J. Todd Scruggs retired from his position as a director on the Board of Directors of Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiary, Bank of the James, effective immediately. On the same date, Mr. Scruggs also retired from his positions as Secretary and Treasurer of the Company and as Executive Vice Pr…