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Bumble, Inc. (BMBL)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$3.06+4.08%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Market cap
- $412.57M
- Employees
- 580
- IPO date
- 2021-01-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$26.47consensus
Range $22.18 – $27.40
vs price: -88% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$7.15consensus
Range $6.58 – $7.73
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $2.94 BMBL trades at 1× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.50–$5.00. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
1.4x
peer 12.1x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-89%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$26.17
range $21.93 – $27.28
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
35th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -4.1% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.24 (-4.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$562.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,849.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth turning positive
Why it matters: The Communication Services sector is struggling. Growth in revenue might mean a recovery for the sector. This could affect Bumble's future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BMBL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting BMBL and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BMBL and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If BMBL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BMBL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping BMBL and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Bumble Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.