Reading BHRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, BHRB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends for potential impacts. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 BHRB trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $86 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 23% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.86 → $1.99 (+7.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,349.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer spending trends. This affects banks like Burke & Herbert.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up each month. This shows that people are spending more.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down each month. This means that people are spending less.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BHRB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets Effective on May 1, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp., a Virginia corporation (“Burke & Herbert”), completed its previously announced merger with LINKBANCORP, Inc., a Pennsylvania corporation (“LNKB”), pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger dated December 18, 2025 between Burke & Herbert and LNKB (the “Merger Agreement”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, on the Closing Date, (i) LNKB merged with and in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the merger with LINKBANCORP to expand market presence.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The merger with LINKBANCORP was completed on May 1, 2026, as planned. This strategic move aims to enhance market presence and operational scale. The completion marks a successful delivery of the stated priority.
“Burke & Herbert completed its merger with LINKBANCORP on May 1, 2026.”
“Shareholders approved the Merger of LNKB with and into Burke & Herbert.”
“Burke & Herbert and LINKBANCORP entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger.”
Continue to declare and pay a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.55 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company maintained its regular quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share, as declared on April 23, 2026. This consistent dividend policy reflects stable capital allocation practices.
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.55 per share.”
Target adjusted diluted EPS of $1.87 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set an EPS guidance of $1.87 for the fiscal year 2026. With a diluted EPS of $1.79 in 2026-Q1, the company is on track but needs to maintain performance to meet the year-end target.
“Guidance for adjusted diluted EPS is set at $1.87 for fiscal year 2026.”
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can affect interest rates. Changes impact bank margins and lending.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, which may improve bank margins.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates, which could squeeze bank margins.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Burke & Herbert's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of Directors In accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement, and as previously disclosed, as of the Effective Time, the Burke & Herbert board of directors appointed current LNKB directors Diane Poillon and Kristen Snyder to the board of the surviving corporation as the LNKB Continuing Directors. Additional details concerning the ap…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Other Events On April 23, 2026, the Company announced its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock of $0.55 per share, payable on June 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026.
Other Events On March 25, 2026, Burke & Herbert and LNKB issued a joint press release announcing that, at special meetings of their respective shareholders held on March 25, 2026, Burke & Herbert and LNKB shareholders approved the Merger of LNKB with and into Burke & Herbert, with Burke & Herbert as the surviving corporation pursuant to the Merger Agreement by and between Burke & Herbert and LNKB. The closing of the Merger remains subject to regulatory approvals and certain other customary cl…
“The Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.55 per share.”