Reading AX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AX free→Reading AX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AX free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AX trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $90 AX trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $98 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.72x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.19 → $2.19 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,904.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A stable net interest margin shows good loan performance and profit.
Confirms:Net interest margin remains above 4.5% for the next quarter.
Disproves:Net interest margin falls below 4.5%. This shows possible issues with loan performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Registrant” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fiscal third quarter results of operations for the period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The Registrant is furnishing the related quarterly earnings supplement in two different formats as Exhibits 99.2 and 99.3. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AX Axos Financial, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of approximately $2.3 billion in deposits from Jenius Bank.
Acquire individual retirement accounts with an aggregate balance of approximately $3.2 billion from Capital One.
Continue to diversify lending and deposit franchises to support growth and reduce risk.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On May 2, 2026, Axos Bank (the “Bank”), a subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Company”), completed its previously announced acquisition of all of the United States consumer deposits of Jenius Bank, a digital banking business of SMBC MANUBANK (“SMBC”), pursuant to the terms of the Purchase and Assumption Agreement, dated February 12, 2026 (the “Agreement”). The Bank acquired approximately $2.3 billion of deposits from Jenius Bank and rec…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 22, 2026, Axos Bank (the “Bank”), a subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Registrant”), entered into a purchase and assumption agreement (the “Agreement”) with Capital One, National Association (“Capital One”) to acquire individual retirement accounts (“IRAs”) with an aggregate balance of approximately $3.2 billion deposited into associated savings and certificate of deposit accounts, along with certain assets and liabilities related the…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 12, 2026, Axos Bank (the “Bank”), a subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Registrant”), entered into a purchase and assumption agreement (the “Agreement”) with SMBC MANUBANK (“SMBC”) to acquire all of the United States consumer deposits of Jenius Bank, a digital banking business of SMBC. The amount of deposits to be acquired is estimated to be approximately $2.6 billion at closing. Under the Agreement, the Bank will receive cash for t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026 , Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Registrant” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fiscal second quarter results of operations for the period ended December 31, 2025. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The Registrant is furnishing the related quarterly earnings supplement in two different formats as Exhibits 99.2 and 99.3. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this