Reading AVBC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVBC free→Reading AVBC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVBC free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AVBC trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 AVBC trades at 26× p/e — 2.2× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $22 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.34 (+3.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,190.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 18.6 points (from 35.0 to 53.6).
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC statement can change interest rates. This affects how banks perform.
Confirms one read:FOMC statement indicates a rate hike or a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC statement indicates a rate cut or a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVBC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of Avidia Bank, issued a press release announcing the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and the declaration of a dividend of $0.05 per share payable on or about May 28, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 19, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and i…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a dividend of $0.05 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Avidia Bancorp declared a consistent dividend of $0.05 per share for both 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with dividends being maintained despite fluctuations in net income.
“The Board declared a dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on May 28, 2026.”
“The Board declared a dividend of $0.05 per share, payable on February 26, 2026.”
Focus on stabilizing net income after previous fluctuations.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from a loss of $0.907 million in 2025-Q3 to a profit of $5.996 million in 2026-Q1. This indicates progress in stabilizing financial performance, although revenue slightly decreased from $33.882 million to $33.599 million over the same period.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operating activities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased from $2.412 million in 2025-Q3 to $8.376 million in 2026-Q1. This improvement suggests effective operational management, contributing to better liquidity despite a slight revenue decline.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This impacts bank performance.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows a big increase from last month.
Confirms the other:The retail sales report shows a big decrease from last month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth drops below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of Avidia Bank, issued a press release announcing the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. declared a dividend of $0.05 per share. The dividend will be paid on or about February 26, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 17, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the declaration of the dividend is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On November 12, 2025, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the dismissal of Berry, Dunn, McNeil & Parker, LLC, the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective as of November 12, 2025. Concurrently, the Audit Committee approved the engagement of BDMP Assurance, LLP as the Company’s new independent registered public accounting firm for the fisca…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of Avidia Bank, issued a press release announcing the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
“Net income increased to $5.996 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Net income was a loss of $0.907 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $8.376 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $2.412 million.”