Reading ATLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATLO free→Reading ATLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATLO free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ATLO's performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. What it hinges on includes potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates, and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could provide momentum if they continue to beat earnings. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 ATLO trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.65. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$186.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $709.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed and rose to a full label. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Additionally, the macro backdrop was updated, reflecting current economic conditions.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Ames National's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector falls below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATLO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 13, 2026, the Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend. A copy of the press release dated May 15, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATLO Ames National Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay regular dividends to shareholders.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share was $0.24 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. The company has maintained regular dividend payouts, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
“The Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend.”
“The Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend.”
“The Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend.”
The company forecasts earnings per share for 2026 to be in the range of $2.70 to $2.80.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has set an EPS forecast range of $2.70 to $2.80 for 2026. With revenue at $22.2M in 2026-Q1, the trajectory towards this EPS target remains to be seen as the year progresses.
“The Company is forecasting earnings for 2026 in the range of $2.70 to $2.80 per share.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend. This can change Ames National's loan demand and deposit growth.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects Ames National's lending margins and how much money it makes.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 24, 2026, Ames National Corporation issued a News Release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events On February 11, 2026, the Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend and nominees to stand for election to the Board of Directors at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for April 29, 2026. A copy of the press release dated February 13, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 23, 2026, Ames National Corporation (Nasdaq: ATLO; the “Company”) issued a News Release announcing financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events On November 12, 2025, the Company announced the declaration of a cash dividend. A copy of the press release dated November 13, 2025 is attached as Exhibit 99.1.