Reading VRRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRRM free→Reading VRRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRRM free→NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If VRRM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.98 VRRM trades at 4× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $4.00–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 81% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.33 (+2.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 6 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -6.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,499.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims show how the economy is doing. If they rise, consumer spending may drop. This could hurt Verra Mobility.
Confirms:Weekly claims drop below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRRM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 1, 2026, Verra Mobility Corporation (the “Company”) announced that the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved the appointment of Jonathan Keyser as the Interim President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective May 31, 2026. Mr. Keyser, age 44, has served as Verra Mobility’s Executive Vice President and Chief…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$4.00 – $24.00 (median $9.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRRM Verra Mobility Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Verra Mobility aims to achieve its 2026 revenue guidance of $985 million to $995 million.
Verra Mobility aims to achieve its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $380 million to $385 million.
Verra Mobility aims to achieve its 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance of $140 million to $150 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing financially. They will show if it can meet its goals.
Confirms one read:Q2 total revenue meets or exceeds the guidance of $1,020 million to $1,030 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 total revenue falls below the guidance range of $1,020 million to $1,030 million.
Why it matters: Losing this contract could hurt revenue and profits. It's important to watch this.
Confirms:In 2026, revenue may drop by over $135 million because of the Avis Budget contract loss.
Disproves:Revenue impact from the Avis Budget contract is less than $135 million.
Why it matters: If industrial sector growth speeds up, it could help Verra Mobility's performance. This would signal a stronger market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the direction of the company, affecting growth and operations.
Confirms one read:New CEO outlines a clear growth strategy that aligns with revenue goals.
Confirms the other:The new CEO does not share a clear plan. This causes uncertainty about the company's direction.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow is crucial for funding operations. Progress here shows financial health.
Confirms:Management raises Free Cash Flow guidance to over $150M. This means stronger cash generation.
Disproves:Management lowers Free Cash Flow guidance to under $140M. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction and impact growth strategies. Investors will look for stability.
Confirms:Announcement of a permanent CEO who has a strong track record in the mobility sector.
Disproves:No permanent CEO appointed by the next earnings call on August 5, 2026.
Executive Vice President, Government Solutions — Jonathan Baldwin: Jonathan Baldwin is departing the company on July 9, 2026.
Other Events. On June 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Verra Mobility Corporation (the “Company”) formed a Transformation Committee of the Board (the “Transformation Committee”) to oversee implementation of the Company’s transformation initiative to better position the Company’s business for long-term growth. The Transformation Committee will support management’s review and execution of the Company’s business and financial strategies, cost structure optimization, growth opport…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Verra Mobility Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Verra Mobility Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.