Reading MMS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MMS free→Reading MMS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MMS free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 MMS trades at 8× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $177 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.28 → $2.21 (-3.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$272.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,999.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this earnings target shows strong financial health and growth confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q2 reaches or exceeds $2.07.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q2 falls below $2.07.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MMS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Definitive Material Agreement. On May 27, 2026 (the “Amendment Date”), Maximus, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Second Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., in its capacity as administrative agent, the loan parties party thereto and the other lenders and financial institutions party thereto, which amended that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of May 30, 2024 (as amended by the First Amendm…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MMS Maximus Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maximus announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Maximus aims to maintain stable operating income through disciplined cost management.
Maximus is focusing on improving cash from operating activities to support its financial health.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is managing income and costs. This can impact investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows growth in operating income from last quarter.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows a drop in operating income from last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue steady or growing in this area is key for the company's success.
Confirms:U.S. Services Segment revenue for Q2 shows no decline or increases compared to $416 million.
Disproves:U.S. Services Segment revenue for Q2 falls below $416 million.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows the company is managing its operations well. This can support growth and stability.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up each quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down each quarter.
Why it matters: A share buyback program can signal management's confidence in the company's future. It may also support the stock price.
Confirms:The company announced a share buyback program with a set dollar amount.
Disproves:No announcement of a buyback program by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is working well and is in good financial shape.
Confirms:Cash from operations in Q2 is over $190 million.
Disproves:Cash from operations in Q2 is under $190 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show that management trusts the company's value.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks of at least $100 million after refreshing the program.
Disproves:No share buyback announcements or a cut in the buyback program is concerning.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance-Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of…