Maximus Inc. (MMS)

NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$63.02-0.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Maximus Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	1.41B
EPS	—	1.92
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.2B–$5.35B	—
EPS	$7.9–$8.2non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$712M–$734Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$425M–$475M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.38B
EPS	—	8.36
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.83B
EPS	—	9.39

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $450M to $500M next quarter	The company maintains strong free cash flow near $450M to $500M.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $450M next quarter	Free cash flow: $-136.967M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $450M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026-136,967,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stable near $148.5M	Maximus delivers stable operating income near $148.5M.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $148.5M next quarter	Operating income: $161.428M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $148.5M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026161,428,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ebadcdf0-6bde-45a1-97f6-daeac4f75abf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 14.2%	A supporting condition in Maximus Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 14.2% next quarter.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 14.2% next quarter	Gross margin: 27.27% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 14.2% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202627.272159 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ebadcdf0-6bde-45a1-97f6-daeac4f75abf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $5.2B to $5.35B next quarter	Revenue is expected around $5.2B to $5.35B next quarter.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $5.2B next quarter	Revenue: $1.279B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.2B next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 20261,278,971,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ebadcdf0-6bde-45a1-97f6-daeac4f75abf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $450M to $500M next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income stable near $148.5MPublished status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 14.2%Gross margin: 27.27%
Revenue near $5.2B to $5.35B next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Maximus Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MMS is a value-oriented services business with recent financial performance that is strong relative to its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Maximus Inc.

The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the valuation score has fallen recently. The evidence describes expectations as justified, with low fragility in what is priced in, rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in August and October, while the latest thesis read says recent performance remains in the top half of the industry. Management has shown progress on efficiency, but a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility; the defense acquisition has completed, though its financial contribution is not yet shown.

What Maximus Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is whether MMS can sustain its raised guidance without a reversal. The broader setup also depends on sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and higher guidance, or instead signaling that the Industrials tailwind is fading.

Bottom line

For a 1-3 year view, the thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent performance and a cheap valuation versus peers, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk limit confidence. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.