Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)

NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.09-1.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Verra Mobility Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.95 → 0.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	234M
EPS	—	0.241
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	962.13M
EPS	—	1.137
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	928.5M
EPS	—	0.93

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $415 million in 2026	A primary condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$415M.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $405M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve free cash flow near $160 million in 2026	Profit goals are $415M EBITDA and $160M free cash flow.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $150M in FY26	Free cash flow: $33.135M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$160M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202633,135,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize leadership and execute turnaround plan	A supporting condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and progress on turnaround by end 2026.	Under Pressure	Ongoing leadership turmoil or failed turnaround execution	Qualitative: CFO resigned w/o successor; CEO turnover; profits vanished CFO resigned with no successor; CEO transitioned; profits vanished; Avis contract loss. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue near $1.03 billion	A primary condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.03B.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.02B in FY26	Revenue: $25.831M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.03B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202625,831,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f8b9daca-1f19-4952-a944-82c7da10648c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.93

$1.02 → $0.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.93B

$0.95B → $0.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.02	$945,455,536	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.02	$945,455,536	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.02	$945,455,536	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$1.02	$945,455,536	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$1.02	$945,455,540	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.02	$949,265,130	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.03	$948,992,700	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.95	$932,556,187	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.95	$932,493,687	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.95	$932,434,840	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.93	$928,497,959	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.93	$928,497,959	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$0.93	$928,497,959	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	1
2026-06-01	1	7	1
2026-07-01	1	7	1
2026-08-01	1	8	0
2026-09-01	1	8	0
2026-10-01	0	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $415 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve free cash flow near $160 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Stabilize leadership and execute turnaround planPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 2026 revenue near $1.03 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-88.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Verra Mobility Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a business with evidence of revenue growth and robust earnings quality, but it is not a settled multi-year growth story. The thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence, high risk, and management execution still mixed.

What's priced into Verra Mobility Corporation

VRRM is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions sit below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the valuation evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results are mixed: Q2 revenue grew 12% year over year, but Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 42% from 45%, and recent performance sits below its industry cohort. Management has extended the Avis and Hertz contracts, while commercial revenue trends have varied; recent CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty. Near-term miss risk is rated quiet, though the smaller company size and peer misses remain risks.

What Verra Mobility Corporation hinges on

A key downside scenario is a guidance cut after the recent increase, which could weaken management credibility. The multi-year view also depends on whether management turns its business transformation priorities into specific results and sustains customer contracts. In the near term, earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers such as BR, LDOS, and CACI may signal whether sector conditions are supportive or worsening.