Reading TDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDS free→Reading TDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDS free→NYSECommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TDS trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 159% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40, TDS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 77× p/e (6.4× the 12× p/e peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $15 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 172% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.12 (-18.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$280.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,827.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well TDS's fiber expansion is doing and its overall health.
Confirms:TDS Telecom reports revenue growth of at least 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:TDS Telecom revenue declines or grows less than 1% year over year in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TDS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On June 1, 202 6, Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. (f/k/a United States Cellular Corporation) (“Array”), a subsidiary of Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (“TDS”), and certain subsidiaries of Array (collectively, “Sellers”) completed the previously announced sale of select spectrum assets to Verizon Communications Inc. (“Verizon”), pursuant to the terms of that certain License Purchase Agreement, dated as of October 17, 2024, between Sellers…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Integrated Telecommunication Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VZ Verizon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
T AT&T | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV | — | — | moderate |
GSAT Globalstar, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue to maintain a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows financial health. It also affects shareholder value.
Confirms one read:Array pays the declared special dividend of $11.00 per share on June 1, 2026.
Confirms the other:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve operating income. Progress here is key to financial health.
Confirms:Operating income increases to above $150M in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $100M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing revenue is crucial for TDS's growth strategy. This will show if they are on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is negative or flat year over year.
Why it matters: Successful spectrum sales are key for TDS's revenue and business plans.
Confirms:The pending spectrum sales to T-Mobile and Verizon are now complete.
Disproves:Delays or cancellations of the spectrum sales.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could indicate broader sector challenges affecting TDS.
Confirms:TDS reports revenue growth below 3% year over year.
Disproves:TDS reports revenue growth above 3% year over year.
Other Events Array Special Dividend On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors of Array declared a special cash dividend to holders of Array’s Common Stock (“Common Stock”) and holders of Array’s Series A Common Stock (“Series A Common Stock”) of $11.00 per share payable in cash to the stockholders of record as of June 11, 2026. On June 1, 2026, TDS held 33,005,877 shares of Series A Common Stock and 37,782,826 shares of Common Stock. The payment date in respect of the dividend is scheduled for…
of Form 8-K is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor will any such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements for Certain Officers The Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) 2026 Executive Officer Bonus Program (the 2026 TDS Plan) was approved by the TDS Compensation and Human Resources Committee on March 18, 2026. The 2026 TDS Plan covers the Vice Chair of TDS, all TDS executive vice president and senior vice president officers, and the President and CEO of TDS Telecommunicat…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 10, 2026, Joseph R. Hanley, Senior Vice President – Strategy and Corporate Development of Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS), notified TDS of his intention to retire from his employment with TDS, effective July 1, 2026, or such other date as may be mutually agreed upon by Mr. Hanley and TDS. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of th…