Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$37.89-0.11%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows to at least $1.215 billion in FY26: FY26 rev guide $1.01B vs $1.22B target.
TDS grew revenue from $290M to $310M in one year. Operating income improved from -$34M to $144M. The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.04 per share. These show steady progress in profit and growth.
Revenue growth faces challenges and analysts expect nearly 30% decline next year. The stock trades at a very high price-to-earnings ratio of 65. Profit margins and cash flow remain uncertain amid market headwinds.
The price is about 26% above our fair value near $28. Analysts expect a 30% revenue drop, which we view as too pessimistic given recent growth and profit gains.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.04
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $0 in future quarters
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.03 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its fiber broadband footprint and optimizing tower operations. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and strategic acquisitions.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation on TDS, with expectations slightly below peers. This suggests that while TDS is viewed as a solid player, there is an acknowledgment of potential risks in the Communication Services sector.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's focus on fiber expansion and successful monetization of spectrum assets. However, there is a moderate risk due to the sector's headwinds and the potential for earnings guidance changes.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T. If these companies continue to perform well, TDS may benefit from positive sector momentum. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact TDS's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on TDS. However, the stock hitting a 52-week low may affect investor confidence. Additionally, legacy revenue pressure could hinder fiber growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, TDS is positioned well within its industry, but it faces external pressures that could influence its trajectory. Not investment advice.