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Sky Harbour Group Corp. (SKYH)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$9.39+1.95%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, SKYH is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 105% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Real Estate - Development
- Market cap
- $704.82M
- Employees
- 112
- IPO date
- 2020-09-25
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$4.57consensus
Range $4.57 – $4.57
vs price: +106% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$29.88consensus
Range $29.88 – $29.88
vs price: -69% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $9.39 SKYH trades at 12× p/s — 2.1× the 6× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $4.48 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
11.7x
peer 5.6x · own history —
Premium
2.1x peer
Growth the price needs
110%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$4.48
range $4.48 – $4.48
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 110% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
11th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -0.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
5th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -43.7% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.17 (-43.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$358.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes after the FOMC meeting
Why it matters: The FOMC meeting may change interest rates and the economy. This could affect Sky Harbour's costs.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The FOMC decision shows a rate cut or a soft approach. This may help financing.
Confirms the other:FOMC decision signals a rate hike or hawkish stance, increasing financing costs.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SKYH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SKYH and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like HHH, FOR, and AXR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting SKYH and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SKYH raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SKYH cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HHH, FOR, and AXR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping SKYH and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
by reference. The furnishing of the Press Release and Investor Presentation is not an admission as to the materiality of any information therein. The information contained in the Press Release and Investor Presentation is summary information that is intended to be considered in the context of more complete information included in the Company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and other public announcements that the Company has made and may make from time to…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+8.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.