Sky Harbour Group Corp. (SKYH)

NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.53+4.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sky Harbour Group Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.47M
EPS	—	-0.087
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	40.57M
EPS	—	-0.369
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	68.16M
EPS	—	-0.217

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $4-6M Adjusted EBITDA run rate by end of 2026	The company plans $4-6M adjusted EBITDA by year end.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $4M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income remained negative at -$6.97M in 2026-Q1 and -$6.77M in 2026-Q2, showing slight improvement. Management reaffirmed the goal to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA run rate of $4-6 million by year end 2026. The trajectory shows limited progress toward profitability but consistent focus on this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain operating cash flow breakeven or better	Operating cash flow reached breakeven in late 2025.	Improving	Operating cash flow falls below zero in FY26	Cash from operations: $485,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0 operating cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026485,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $42-46M revenue run rate by end of 2026	A primary condition in Sky Harbour Group Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $42M revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $42M in FY26	Revenue: $9.855M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $42M revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20269,855,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0e77ec28-22b6-4013-b53f-56c032c63b37. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Consolidated revenue increased from $8.7M in 2026-Q1 to $9.9M in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 13% sequential growth. Management reaffirmed the guidance to reach an annualized revenue run rate of $42-46 million by year end 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth toward the stated revenue target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.22

$-0.17 → $-0.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.07B

$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.17	$69,419,950	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.17	$69,419,950	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.17	$69,419,950	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.17	$69,419,950	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.20	$69,424,120	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.20	$69,424,120	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.20	$69,424,120	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.20	$69,935,890	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.17	$69,935,890	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$-0.17	$69,935,890	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.17	$69,935,890	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$69,932,178	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$69,932,178	4 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.15	$69,932,178	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.21	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$-0.21	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$-0.21	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$-0.21	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$-0.21	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$-0.22	$68,714,178	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.22	$68,159,444	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $4-6M Adjusted EBITDA run rate by end of 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain operating cash flow breakeven or betterCash from operations: $485,000
Achieve $42-46M revenue run rate by end of 2026Revenue: $9.855M

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sky Harbour Group Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and management execution is described as volatile. The thesis is on watch, with the recent signal shifting from restrictive to cautious and no fresh break identified.

What's priced into Sky Harbour Group Corp.

SKYH is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as expensive and unjustified. The model’s confidence is low, so the precise expectations gap is uncertain; the available evidence does not show that strong execution is already supported by results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown sequentially, and management reaffirmed its year-end 2026 revenue run-rate goal, but operating losses remain large and progress toward the profitability goal is limited. Airport construction is advancing, while consecutive earnings misses and erratic surprises add risk; the next guidance update is an important check on execution.

What Sky Harbour Group Corp. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on revenue growth translating into the stated adjusted EBITDA run rate and on airport projects progressing as planned. Near term, rate cuts and continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance reduction would be a meaningful negative.