St. Joe Company (JOE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-14
$64.34-0.60%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put JOE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Real Estate is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth of at least 38% next 12 months: Q2 FY26 rev +23.0% vs 38% target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 28% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskJOE's revenue growth must accelerate to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 23% year over year in Q2 FY26, falling short of the 38% target. It trades at 31× P/E versus a peer median of 13×. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast, indicating expectations look full. A specific risk is the 36% probability of a miss on the next quarter's outlook. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% below where it trades, this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. JOE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Continue this research
Compare JOE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Real Estate Development — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put JOE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Grow revenue and profitability across real estate and hospitality
Record profit supports revenue and profitability growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
