St. Joe Company (JOE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-10-29
$70.02-2.48%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put JOE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Real Estate is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue growth of at least 38% next 12 months: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 11% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskJOE’s thesis rests on growing real estate and hospitality revenue, supported by expanding residential communities. Recent performance is strong, yet Q3 2026 revenue fell 3% year over year. The community pipeline is expanding, though the latest revenue decline complicates the growth case. JOE trades at 34× P/E versus the 12× peer median and its 35× history. The market prices in more growth than our forecast. The specific growth pillar needs review, so its comparison remains unverified. That large peer gap leaves the premium needing support. peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. JOE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Continue this research
Compare JOE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Real Estate Development — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put JOE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand residential homesite pipeline and communities
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Expanded planned homesites and higher growth capex support community pipeline growth.
Advances: Grow revenue and profitability across real estate and hospitality
Year-over-year growth supports revenue and profitability objectives.
Advances: Grow revenue and profitability across real estate and hospitality
Record profit supports revenue and profitability growth objective.
