Reading NMAX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMAX free→Reading NMAX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NMAX free→NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.80 NMAX trades at 2× p/s — 1.3× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $24 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.04 (-33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$635.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,751.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if the company can stop losing money during sector challenges.
Confirms one read:Newsmax says losses are down or the company is getting closer to making money in Q2.
Confirms the other:Newsmax's losses widen in Q2 compared to previous quarters.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NMAX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company or other document under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing or document, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing or document.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadcasting.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NMAX Newsmax, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NXST Nexstar Media Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $212 million to $216 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $51.7M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the full-year target of $212M-$216M. The company is reiterating its guidance, but with only one quarter's data, the trajectory is still forming.
“The Company is reiterating its previously issued full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $212 million to $216 million.”
“The Company is issuing full-year 2026 guidance as follows: Full-year revenue of $212 million to $216 million.”
Focus on improving operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved from -$7.2M in 2025-Q3 to -$4.5M in 2026-Q1, showing progress in reducing losses. The trajectory indicates improvement, but further efforts are needed to reach positive income.
The company aims to maintain or improve its gross profit levels amidst revenue fluctuations.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit decreased from $21.4M in 2025-Q4 to $19.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenge in maintaining profit levels. The trajectory shows a slight decline, requiring attention to stabilize or improve.
Why it matters: New priorities could indicate a shift in how Newsmax plans to address its current challenges.
Confirms one read:Management shares a new plan to make more money.
Confirms the other:Management has not shared any changes to their plans.
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company or other document under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing or document, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing or document.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 19, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Newsmax Inc. (the “Company”) appointed David Evans as a member of the Board to fill an existing vacancy, effective immediately. The Board also appointed Mr. Evans to the Audit Committee of the Board, effective immediately, to serve alongside the other members of the Audit Committee, Rene Ale…
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company or other document under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing or document, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing or document.
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company or other document under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing or document, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing or document.
“Operating income was negative at -$4.5M.”
“Operating income was negative at -$4.7M.”
“Operating income was negative at -$7.2M.”
“Gross profit was $19.9M.”
“Gross profit was $21.4M.”