Reading CURI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CURI free→Reading CURI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly actions. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.55 CURI trades at 2× p/s — 1.7× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.27 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $0.03 (+50.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$206.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$657.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,344.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it may signal a recovery in the sector. This could improve CuriosityStream's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a positive change, moving above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CURI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) is deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Broadcasting.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CURI CuriosityStream, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | high |
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NXST Nexstar Media Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CuriosityStream aims to achieve full-year 2026 revenue in the range of $75 to $80 million.
CuriosityStream aims to achieve full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $16 to $20 million.
CuriosityStream aims to achieve first-half 2026 revenue in the range of $35 to $41 million.
Other Events. On May 14, 2026 , the Company raised in the Press Release that the Company's Board of Directors approved the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.085 per share of the Company's Common Stock payable on June 19, 2026 , to stockholders of record on June 5, 2026 . Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information Certain statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K may be considered “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litiga…
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) is deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…
Other Events. On March 10, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized an additional $2.0 million to purchase the Company’s common stock under its existing share repurchase program. This authorization increases the total amount approved for repurchases under the plan to $6.0 million . Under the stock repurchase program, we may repurchase shares through open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, block purchases, or otherwise in accordance with applicable federal securities…
Other Events. On February 5, 2026 , CuriosityStream, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing a new executive leadership position, Chief Commercial Officer, and the appointment of John T. Vilade to the role, effective immediately. He will report directly to Clint Stinchcomb, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer. As Chief Commercial Officer, Mr. Vilade will lead the Company's sales and business development initiatives, with a focus on driving high-margin, durable g…