Reading FOX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FOX free→
Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$49.95-15.22%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FOX is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is due to weak recent financials and fragile earnings quality. If FOX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $24.76B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-03-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$66.45consensus
Range $52.11 – $91.78
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$80.09consensus
Range $78.06 – $82.13
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $50 FOX trades at 10× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.6x
peer 19.1x · own history 11.3x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-25%
our forecast -1%
Our fair value
$66.64
range $53.50 – $93.23
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
63rd pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
25th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.headwind-15.2%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -6.4% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,886.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q3 net income dropping below $200 million
Why it matters: A fall in net income might mean higher costs or lower sales. This can hurt investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 net income falls below $200 million.
Disproves:Net income remains above $200 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FOX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting FOX and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FOX and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If FOX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-10-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FOX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-10-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping FOX and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 15, 2026, Fox Corporation (“FOX” or the “Company”) and Roku, Inc. (“Roku”) issued a joint press release announcing their entry into a definitive agreement that provides for FOX’s acquisition of Roku. FOX and Roku will host a joint investor conference call at 8:00 AM Eastern Time on June 15, 2026 to discuss the transaction. A live webcast and related presentation materials will be available on the Company’s investor relations website. The Company is furnishing…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.