Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-16

$109.11-1.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

61.81 → 61.27 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share (EPS)	A primary condition in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44 EPS.	Broken	EPS falls below $40	Diluted EPS: CNY 3.68 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $44 EPS. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 20, 20263.68 CNY/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory and legal challenges	The company adapts despite regulatory challenges.	Improving	New regulatory penalties exceeding $600 million or major AI bans	No new penalties reported News shows AI product launches and positive analyst ratings. No regulatory penalties or bans reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Alibaba's total revenue growth	A primary condition in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.13 trillion annual revenue.	Broken	annual revenue falls below $1.0 trillion	Revenue: CNY 268.194B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.13 trillion annual revenue. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 20, 2026268,193,757,000 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$61.27

$60.73 → $61.27 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1261.78B

$1263.19B → $1261.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$60.73	$1,263,194,225,496	18 / 29
2026-07-25	$60.73	$1,263,194,225,496	18 / 29
2026-07-26	$60.73	$1,263,194,225,496	18 / 29
2026-07-27	$60.73	$1,263,194,225,496	18 / 29
2026-07-28	$60.58	$1,263,718,907,539	18 / 28
2026-07-29	$60.58	$1,263,718,907,539	18 / 28
2026-07-30	$60.58	$1,263,718,907,539	18 / 28
2026-07-31	$60.57	$1,264,086,480,963	18 / 28
2026-08-01	$60.57	$1,264,086,480,963	18 / 28
2026-08-02	$60.57	$1,264,086,480,963	18 / 28
2026-08-03	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-04	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-05	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-06	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-07	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-08	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-09	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-10	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-11	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-12	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-13	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-14	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-15	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-16	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-17	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-18	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-19	$60.65	$1,265,883,760,319	18 / 28
2026-08-20	$61.00	$1,271,232,626,839	18 / 28
2026-08-21	$61.56	$1,274,248,877,320	18 / 29
2026-08-22	$62.27	$1,274,494,883,552	18 / 29
2026-08-23	$62.34	$1,274,887,488,295	18 / 29
2026-08-24	$62.35	$1,274,219,195,618	18 / 29
2026-08-25	$61.58	$1,274,946,760,061	18 / 30
2026-08-26	$61.51	$1,274,088,819,603	18 / 30
2026-08-27	$61.51	$1,274,088,819,603	18 / 30
2026-08-28	$61.51	$1,274,088,819,603	18 / 30
2026-08-29	$61.79	$1,271,998,529,126	18 / 30
2026-08-30	$61.79	$1,271,998,529,126	18 / 30
2026-08-31	$61.79	$1,271,998,529,126	18 / 30
2026-09-01	$62.10	$1,270,116,115,051	18 / 30
2026-09-02	$62.24	$1,273,739,397,493	18 / 30
2026-09-03	$62.24	$1,273,739,397,493	18 / 30
2026-09-04	$62.14	$1,272,603,371,345	18 / 30
2026-09-05	$62.14	$1,272,603,371,345	18 / 30
2026-09-06	$62.14	$1,272,603,371,345	18 / 30
2026-09-07	$62.26	$1,274,671,429,012	18 / 30
2026-09-08	$61.79	$1,274,115,633,235	18 / 30
2026-09-09	$61.80	$1,274,286,770,325	19 / 30
2026-09-10	$61.80	$1,274,286,770,325	19 / 30
2026-09-11	$61.81	$1,274,543,475,960	19 / 30
2026-09-12	$61.87	$1,275,655,867,043	19 / 30
2026-09-13	$61.87	$1,275,655,867,043	19 / 30
2026-09-14	$61.87	$1,275,655,867,043	19 / 30
2026-09-15	$61.82	$1,274,629,044,504	19 / 30
2026-09-16	$61.81	$1,274,457,907,415	19 / 30
2026-09-17	$61.79	$1,273,944,496,145	19 / 30
2026-09-18	$61.79	$1,273,944,496,145	19 / 30
2026-09-19	$61.79	$1,273,944,496,145	19 / 30
2026-09-20	$61.72	$1,274,982,526,534	19 / 30
2026-09-21	$60.88	$1,257,607,841,997	19 / 30
2026-09-22	$61.22	$1,260,345,782,526	19 / 30
2026-09-23	$60.99	$1,262,292,881,198	19 / 30
2026-09-24	$60.87	$1,260,286,223,001	19 / 30
2026-09-25	$60.90	$1,261,015,249,569	19 / 30
2026-09-26	$60.74	$1,261,159,699,596	19 / 30
2026-09-27	$60.74	$1,261,159,699,596	19 / 30
2026-09-28	$60.75	$1,261,437,018,369	19 / 30
2026-09-29	$60.76	$1,261,590,682,664	19 / 30
2026-09-30	$60.68	$1,262,617,969,477	19 / 30
2026-10-01	$60.71	$1,263,065,345,639	19 / 30
2026-10-02	$60.60	$1,260,943,667,288	18 / 30
2026-10-03	$60.76	$1,261,197,665,576	18 / 30
2026-10-04	$60.76	$1,261,197,665,576	18 / 30
2026-10-05	$60.76	$1,261,192,649,597	18 / 30
2026-10-06	$60.76	$1,261,192,649,597	19 / 30
2026-10-07	$60.83	$1,262,716,954,149	19 / 30
2026-10-08	$60.82	$1,262,462,903,390	19 / 30
2026-10-09	$60.90	$1,262,861,978,665	19 / 30
2026-10-10	$60.90	$1,262,861,978,665	19 / 30
2026-10-11	$61.16	$1,262,419,941,034	19 / 30
2026-10-12	$61.26	$1,261,711,127,906	19 / 30
2026-10-13	$61.29	$1,262,291,425,814	19 / 30
2026-10-14	$61.33	$1,263,499,224,368	19 / 30
2026-10-15	$61.33	$1,263,492,942,459	19 / 30
2026-10-16	$61.27	$1,261,776,108,460	19 / 30

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	39	2	1
2026-06-01	38	2	1
2026-07-01	38	1	1
2026-08-01	38	1	1
2026-09-01	38	1	1
2026-10-01	38	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 38 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 8

$192.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$105.60$211.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share (EPS)Published status: Broken
Alibaba's total revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity with a focus on the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.

What's priced into Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

The market's valuation suggests BABA is currently seen as inexpensive compared to peers. There is low fragility in the current regime, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to sudden changes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may struggle in the near term, especially given the company's history of consecutive earnings misses. The risk of missing expectations remains significant, with a 50% probability of a miss in the next earnings report.

What Alibaba Group Holding Ltd hinges on

The future performance of BABA will depend on broader sector trends, particularly the performance of major competitors like AMZN, PDD, and MELI. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a lift for BABA, but any downturn could negatively impact its trajectory.