ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$1641.52-0.96%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ASML Holding N.V.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+6.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

52.95 → 56.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share growth to $43.19 in FY27	Profit per share is forecast to rise from $31.83 in 2026 to $43.19 in 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $31 in FY26 or fails to rise toward $43 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful execution of strategic partnerships and AI initiatives	A supporting condition in ASML Holding N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain active partnerships and AI stake progress.	Intact	Loss of key partnerships or failure to advance AI initiatives	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to nearly $49B in FY27	A primary condition in ASML Holding N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $48.9B.	Improving	Revenue falls below $39B in FY26 or fails to grow toward $49B in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$56.47

$50.76 → $56.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$57.69B

$53.70B → $57.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$50.76	$53,695,353,860	35 / 39
2026-07-25	$50.92	$53,842,730,790	35 / 39
2026-07-26	$50.92	$53,842,730,790	35 / 39
2026-07-27	$52.02	$54,796,466,848	24 / 27
2026-07-28	$50.92	$53,842,730,790	35 / 39
2026-07-29	$50.92	$53,842,738,480	35 / 39
2026-07-30	$50.92	$53,842,738,480	35 / 39
2026-07-31	$50.92	$53,842,738,480	35 / 39
2026-08-01	$51.09	$53,842,738,480	34 / 39
2026-08-02	$51.09	$53,842,738,480	34 / 39
2026-08-03	$51.09	$53,842,738,480	34 / 39
2026-08-04	$51.09	$53,842,738,480	34 / 39
2026-08-05	$51.09	$54,090,943,610	34 / 39
2026-08-06	$51.09	$53,842,738,480	34 / 39
2026-08-07	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-08	$51.42	$54,331,121,810	34 / 39
2026-08-09	$51.42	$54,331,121,810	34 / 39
2026-08-10	$51.42	$54,331,121,810	34 / 39
2026-08-11	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-12	$51.42	$54,330,005,020	34 / 39
2026-08-13	$51.42	$54,330,005,020	34 / 39
2026-08-14	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-15	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-16	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-17	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-18	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-19	$52.30	$55,027,379,777	24 / 27
2026-08-20	$52.45	$55,437,009,428	23 / 27
2026-08-21	$52.45	$55,437,009,428	23 / 27
2026-08-22	$52.45	$55,447,936,894	23 / 27
2026-08-23	$52.45	$55,447,936,894	23 / 27
2026-08-24	$52.45	$55,447,936,894	23 / 27
2026-08-25	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-26	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-27	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-28	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-29	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-30	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-08-31	$52.48	$55,484,521,701	23 / 27
2026-09-01	$52.51	$55,509,242,704	23 / 27
2026-09-02	$52.58	$55,573,272,531	23 / 27
2026-09-03	$52.58	$55,573,272,531	23 / 27
2026-09-04	$52.61	$55,608,241,819	23 / 27
2026-09-05	$52.61	$55,608,241,819	23 / 27
2026-09-06	$52.61	$55,608,241,819	23 / 27
2026-09-07	$52.61	$55,608,241,819	23 / 27
2026-09-08	$52.61	$55,608,241,819	23 / 27
2026-09-09	$52.73	$55,699,106,729	23 / 27
2026-09-10	$52.78	$55,757,983,338	23 / 27
2026-09-11	$52.81	$55,786,913,535	23 / 27
2026-09-12	$52.84	$55,825,293,753	23 / 27
2026-09-13	$52.84	$55,825,293,753	23 / 27
2026-09-14	$52.84	$55,825,293,753	23 / 27
2026-09-15	$52.83	$55,869,279,130	23 / 27
2026-09-16	$52.95	$55,886,860,441	23 / 27
2026-09-17	$52.95	$55,886,860,441	23 / 27
2026-09-18	$52.95	$55,886,860,441	23 / 27
2026-09-19	$52.95	$55,886,860,441	23 / 27
2026-09-20	$53.12	$56,000,572,311	23 / 27
2026-09-21	$52.92	$55,782,795,866	23 / 27
2026-09-22	$52.94	$55,820,327,601	23 / 27
2026-09-23	$53.09	$55,979,359,873	23 / 27
2026-09-24	$53.09	$55,979,359,873	23 / 27
2026-09-25	$53.20	$56,088,654,535	23 / 27
2026-09-26	$53.20	$56,096,339,316	23 / 27
2026-09-27	$53.17	$56,046,737,104	23 / 27
2026-09-28	$53.35	$56,234,847,756	23 / 27
2026-09-29	$53.41	$56,292,432,650	23 / 27
2026-09-30	$53.41	$56,292,432,650	23 / 27
2026-10-01	$53.54	$56,429,129,480	23 / 27
2026-10-02	$53.64	$56,541,034,944	23 / 27
2026-10-03	$53.59	$56,459,847,966	23 / 27
2026-10-04	$53.63	$56,488,084,117	23 / 27
2026-10-05	$53.73	$56,583,694,466	23 / 27
2026-10-06	$53.63	$56,496,668,233	23 / 27
2026-10-07	$53.68	$56,424,502,105	23 / 27
2026-10-08	$53.66	$56,398,710,914	23 / 27
2026-10-09	$53.56	$56,296,349,893	23 / 26
2026-10-10	$53.56	$56,296,349,893	23 / 26
2026-10-11	$53.57	$56,283,862,924	23 / 26
2026-10-12	$53.65	$56,370,047,887	23 / 26
2026-10-13	$53.81	$56,388,847,458	23 / 26
2026-10-14	$54.01	$56,515,551,880	23 / 26
2026-10-15	$55.46	$56,966,944,595	22 / 26
2026-10-16	$56.47	$57,693,912,236	21 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	38	5	1
2026-06-01	39	5	2
2026-07-01	40	4	2
2026-08-01	40	4	1
2026-09-01	39	4	1
2026-10-01	38	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 38 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Jul 14

$2000.00 → $2100.00+5.0%

$0$1155.00$2310.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share growth to $43.19 in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Successful execution of strategic partnerships and AI initiativesQualitative condition
Revenue growth to nearly $49B in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ASML Holding N.V. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on the technology sector. The current thesis state is marked by low confidence due to recent performance uncertainties and mixed signals from industry peers.

What's priced into ASML Holding N.V.

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that there are no immediate concerns affecting ASML's stability. However, the valuation has shifted to 'full', suggesting that expectations are high and could be sensitive to future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable in the near term, with a low probability of missing earnings. Nonetheless, recent history shows that ASML and its peers have faced challenges, which adds a layer of caution to the outlook.

What ASML Holding N.V. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on key factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide a significant boost, while negative trends could dampen momentum.