Terawulf, Inc. (WULF)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.320.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Terawulf, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	109.46M
EPS	—	-0.168
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	260.76M
EPS	—	-3.263
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	856.93M
EPS	—	-0.294

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain $250 million senior secured revolving credit facility in 2026-Q2	It secured a $250 million credit facility to manage financial obligations.	Intact	Credit facility falls below $250 million or is withdrawn	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management closed a $250 million revolving credit facility in 2026-Q1 and completed a $900 million stock offering in April 2026. Cash and restricted cash remained substantial at approximately $3.0 billion at 2026-Q2 end. The trajectory shows delivering financial flexibility to fund growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful expansion into AI data centers with Muskie Data Campus	The company is expanding into AI data centers with the Muskie Data Campus.	Improving	Significant delays or cancellations in Muskie Data Campus expansion	482MW secured vs 250-500MW target 482MW power deal, Anthropic lease, and credit facility support Muskie Data Campus expansion. Context reviewed through Oct 24, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $19 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Terawulf, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19000 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $19 billion in FY26	Revenue: $44.767M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19000 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202644,767,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 646e793c-0a57-4bdd-9863-b9fb6dc52f2c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.29

$-0.12 → $-0.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.86B

$0.97B → $0.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.12	$965,091,847	6 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$951,315,060	2 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.13	$965,091,847	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.13	$965,091,847	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.13	$965,091,847	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.13	$965,091,847	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.14	$960,353,562	5 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$943,895,720	2 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.14	$960,353,562	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$-0.14	$960,353,562	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$-0.14	$960,353,562	6 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$943,895,720	2 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$943,895,720	2 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.14	$960,353,562	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$906,310,310	3 / 12
2026-08-10	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$908,123,560	3 / 12
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$908,123,560	3 / 12
2026-08-14	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.25	$915,953,856	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$-0.21	$880,378,336	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$-0.21	$886,003,262	6 / 10
2026-08-30	$-0.21	$886,003,262	6 / 10
2026-08-31	$-0.21	$886,003,262	6 / 11
2026-09-01	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-02	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-03	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-04	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-05	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-06	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-07	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-08	$-0.21	$878,690,979	6 / 11
2026-09-09	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-10	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-11	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-12	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-13	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-14	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-15	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-16	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-17	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-18	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-19	$-0.21	$882,551,454	6 / 11
2026-09-20	$-0.23	$879,158,881	7 / 12
2026-09-21	$-0.23	$879,158,881	7 / 12
2026-09-22	$-0.23	$879,806,093	7 / 12
2026-09-23	$-0.23	$879,806,093	7 / 12
2026-09-24	$-0.23	$879,806,093	7 / 12
2026-09-25	$-0.23	$878,561,359	8 / 13
2026-09-26	$-0.23	$878,561,359	8 / 13
2026-09-27	$-0.24	$864,954,344	8 / 13
2026-09-28	$-0.24	$864,954,344	8 / 13
2026-09-29	$-0.24	$864,954,344	8 / 13
2026-09-30	$-0.24	$864,954,344	8 / 13
2026-10-01	$-0.24	$863,423,909	8 / 14
2026-10-02	$-0.24	$863,423,909	8 / 13
2026-10-03	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-04	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-05	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-06	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-07	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-08	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-09	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-10	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-11	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-12	$-0.24	$863,423,652	8 / 13
2026-10-13	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-14	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-15	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-16	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-17	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-18	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-19	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-20	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-21	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-22	$-0.24	$864,051,042	8 / 14
2026-10-23	$-0.29	$856,925,221	9 / 14
2026-10-24	$-0.29	$856,926,042	9 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	0
2026-06-01	17	0
2026-07-01	18	0
2026-08-01	19	0
2026-09-01	23	1
2026-10-01	24	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain $250 million senior secured revolving credit facility in 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $19 billion in FY26Revenue: $44.767M

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Terawulf, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth and business-transition story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and management execution is described as volatile.

What's priced into Terawulf, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to a premium versus peers, with optionality driving the difference and low model confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations are demanding relative to the evidence, although the priced-in assessment labels them justified and finds low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, a run of earnings misses and a 51% estimated miss probability make the next results a key risk. Over the multi-year view, HPC lease revenue has grown and made up 71% of second-quarter revenue, while the Muskie campus plan is on track but initial service is expected only in Q4 2028. Cash and restricted cash were substantial at about $3.0 billion at quarter-end, but funding flexibility is mixed after new credit facilities and a stock offering.

What Terawulf, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on continued growth in contracted HPC lease revenue and delivery of the Muskie development plan. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the evidence also flags rate changes and broader Financials-sector results as possible influences, though it provides limited detail on how these relate to WULF’s business.