Western Union (WU)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.34-1.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Western Union’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.52 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.04B
EPS	—	0.366
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.06B
EPS	—	1.266
Revenue growth	3%–5%GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.33B
EPS	—	1.502

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.235	The company keeps its dividend at $0.235 per share.	Under Pressure	Dividend per share falls below $0.23	Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.235 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.235 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0063e37b-3546-4b7d-b029-ffbf66f6b8a8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.235. This reflects management's commitment to stable capital return despite earnings volatility, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS of $1.50 to $1.60 in 2026	A primary condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is $1.50 to $1.60.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.50 to $1.60. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0063e37b-3546-4b7d-b029-ffbf66f6b8a8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
No major regulatory blocks on growth deals	A supporting condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is No state or federal blocks on key deals.	Intact	State blocks Intermex deal or similar growth deal	0 blocks vs 0 target NYAG resolved Intermex review via Assurance of Discontinuance. AUSTRAC probe noted but does not block growth deals. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 5% to 8% in 2026	A primary condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 8% YoY growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: -1.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5% to 8% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-1.257187 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0063e37b-3546-4b7d-b029-ffbf66f6b8a8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue growth guidance for 2026 has been reaffirmed with GAAP growth ranges from 3% to 8% and adjusted growth 4% to 6%. Actual revenue declined slightly (-1% in 2026-Q2 vs prior year), indicating the trajectory is behind guidance but management maintains the outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.50

$1.89 → $1.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.33B

$4.44B → $4.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.89	$4,436,887,007	11 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.89	$4,431,928,670	18 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.89	$4,426,813,674	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$1.89	$4,426,813,674	11 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.89	$4,426,813,674	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$1.89	$4,426,813,674	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$1.89	$4,424,793,674	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.89	$4,431,928,670	18 / 15
2026-08-01	$1.78	$4,396,618,520	11 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.59	$4,389,109,680	18 / 15
2026-08-05	$1.55	$4,377,297,200	18 / 15
2026-08-06	$1.55	$4,377,297,200	18 / 15
2026-08-08	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.55	$4,377,297,200	18 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.53	$4,377,297,200	18 / 15
2026-08-13	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.59	$4,376,713,831	12 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.52	$4,364,892,919	12 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.52	$4,360,852,919	12 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.52	$4,360,734,584	12 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.52	$4,360,734,584	12 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.52	$4,360,734,584	12 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.52	$4,360,734,584	12 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.52	$4,358,869,314	12 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.52	$4,358,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.52	$4,358,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.51	$4,355,535,981	12 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.51	$4,352,195,981	12 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.51	$4,352,195,981	12 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.51	$4,352,195,981	12 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.51	$4,352,197,008	12 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.50	$4,339,373,480	12 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.50	$4,325,113,480	12 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.50	$4,325,113,480	12 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11
2026-10-19	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11
2026-10-20	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11
2026-10-21	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11
2026-10-22	$1.50	$4,325,128,166	12 / 11
2026-10-23	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11
2026-10-24	$1.50	$4,325,114,833	12 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	10	6
2026-06-01	2	10	6
2026-07-01	1	10	7
2026-08-01	1	11	7
2026-09-01	1	11	7
2026-10-01	1	11	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 7 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Jul 31

$8.00 → $7.00-12.5%

RBC CapitalOct 2

$8.00New observation · no comparable prior

Cantor FitzgeraldSep 29 · prior Aug 3

$7.00 → $6.00-14.3%

$0$4.40$8.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.235Published status: Under Pressure
EPS of $1.50 to $1.60 in 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of 5% to 8% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Western Union outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a challenged financial-services business with a possible growth transition, rather than a clear durable compounder today. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: digital and consumer services are growing, but recent performance is weak and risk has risen.

What's priced into Western Union

WU is characterized as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may already reflect meaningful pressure; valuation alone does not resolve the business risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a recent earnings miss raise the risk of another disappointing report. Operating income fell 31% year over year in 2026-Q2, while management has committed to faster cost reductions in the second half of 2026. Over the multi-year view, growth in digital and consumer services is a positive, but traditional retail declines and delayed Intermex closing have limited progress toward synergies.

What Western Union hinges on

The thesis depends on whether cost reductions improve margins and whether Intermex receives the remaining regulatory approval, closes, and delivers synergies. A guidance cut would add pressure, while lower interest rates are a stated sector risk; continued strong results from large financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.