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Wealthfront Corp. (WLTH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$9.55+4.49%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that WLTH's new product launch supports its revenue growth. Revenue grew 7% year over year, but the latest earnings report missed expectations. WLTH trades at a low-confidence valuation, with peer multiples implying a price about 34% above where it trades. If WLTH cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $1.37B
- Employees
- 391
- IPO date
- 2025-09-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-09-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.55. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$14.78
Range $6.69 – $21.10
vs price: -35% below
Method agreement : high · 9 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$12.28consensus
Range $11.43 – $22.18
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$16.24consensus
Range $15.11 – $29.34
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for WLTH right now, so treat our $14 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $10–$14. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-33%
our forecast 38%
Our fair value
$13.74
range $12.89 – $14.73
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $12.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 38% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
16.8xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2543).
90th pctl · Information Technology
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish4 analysts, 57% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (-1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
Share repurchase program up to $100M
Capital allocationImplement a share repurchase program with authorization to purchase up to $100 million of outstanding common stock.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$203.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$689.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,926.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. On one hand, WLTH launched a new product aimed at helping kids build wealth, which supports revenue growth. On the other hand, the company reported a significant earnings miss, which raises concerns about its financial performance.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth meeting or exceeding 18% YoY
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth target shows the company is on track with its goals.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 18% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth was less than 18% compared to last year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-2313d agoBloomberg Business
New product aligns with revenue growth objective.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for WLTH and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting WLTH and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WLTH raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WLTH cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping WLTH and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-041mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, Wealthfront Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. As previously announced, the Company will host a conference call on June 4, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT/5:00 p.m. ET.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.