NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-09
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Create your account →Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Wendy's has a new CEO and CFO with strong experience. Sales grew 3.3% in Q1 2026. The company aims for $460-$480 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Operational improvements could boost franchise profits.
U.S. sales and same-store sales fell over 7% in Q1 2026. Profit dropped from $83.1M to $64.9M year-over-year. Negative news and franchisee struggles hurt the brand. The turnaround may stall or fail.
The stock trades about 23% below our fair value near $10. The market expects weak growth and some risks. Our fair value is 42% above the Street median, showing some optimism.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $440 million in FY26
Maintain guidance for 2026 including flat global systemwide sales growth and adjusted EBITDA of $460-$480 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance including flat global systemwide sales growth and adjusted EBITDA of $460-$480 million. Given 2026-Q1 revenue grew 3.3% year-over-year but systemwide sales declined 5.5%, the outlook reflects cautious confidence with a trajectory that is mixed.
“Reaffirms full-year 2026 outlook including adjusted EBITDA of $460 to $480 million.”
“Executing Project Fresh plan and confident in full-year 2026 outlook.”
Breaks if: Operating profit or net income remain below 80% of prior year levels over next 4 quarters
Enhance operational performance and franchisee financial model to support sustainable, profitable growth.
Stated in 2 quarters including 2026-Q1 and CEO appointment. Management emphasizes operational excellence and franchisee profitability as key to growth. However, operating profit declined from $83.1M in 2025-Q1 to $64.9M in 2026-Q1 and net income fell from $39.2M to $22.7M, indicating limited progress in profitability despite stated focus.
“Focus on operational excellence driving improvement in order accuracy and customer satisfaction.”
Breaks if: U.S. systemwide sales growth falls below -5% YoY or same-restaurant sales fall below -7% YoY in FY26
Focus on strengthening the U.S. business through operational excellence, new product launches, and turnaround initiatives.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite management's focus on improving the U.S. business, U.S. systemwide sales declined 7.3% and same-restaurant sales declined 7.8% in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress in U.S. business performance relative to stated priorities.
“Making progress to improve our U.S. business and confident in the direction we are heading.”
“Executing Project Fresh turnaround plan with urgency to strengthen our U.S. business.”
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
