Vestis (VSTS)

NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.75+1.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vestis’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
EBITDA	$84M–$89Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	672.39M
EPS	—	0.162
FY 2026 · Annual
EBITDA	$310M–$315Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$160M–$170M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.7B
EPS	—	0.778
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.78B
EPS	—	0.965

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share maintained near $0.035	The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.035 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.035	Dividend per share: $0.04 per share FY2025-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.035 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 7, 20250.035 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q2 · Period ending Mar 28, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 14c36ab9-318d-4dbe-8b50-e33fa174a03c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters with dividend per share maintained at $0.035 in 2025-Q1 and 2025-Q2. No recent updates available; dividend maintenance appears stable but no new data for 2026. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at or above $0.49 in fiscal 2026	Vestis beat earnings with EPS of $0.16 last quarter.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.49 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.49 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20260.08 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 774b19de-de8f-4bde-bb9b-966ea104b8be. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $135 million in 2026	Free cash flow is expected near $135 million in 2026.	Intact	FCF falls below $120 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $46.98M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~135 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202646,980,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$2.78B

$2.78B → $2.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,781,679,240	2 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	3
2026-06-01	2	3	3
2026-07-01	2	3	3
2026-08-01	2	3	3
2026-09-01	2	3	3
2026-10-01	2	3	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share maintained near $0.035Dividend per share: $0.04 per share
EPS at or above $0.49 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share
Free cash flow near $135 million in 2026Free cash flow: $46.98M

Next proof point

Dec 7, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vestis outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a transformation and profitability-improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the business remains loss-making. Management has made progress on savings and operating leverage, but the long-term thesis is still on watch as recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Vestis

Valuation is expensive, with VSTS at a sizable premium to peers and a stretched priced-in tag. The evidence points to some expectations of durable improvement, but the valuation model has low confidence, so how much future progress is already assumed remains uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, profitability has improved: adjusted EBITDA and its margin rose from the first to the third quarter of 2026, and plant productivity also advanced. Management is progressing toward its cost-savings plan, but erratic earnings surprises, a high-miss-rate industry, and a sector headwind keep execution risk elevated; the next guidance update is important.

What Vestis hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to deliver savings, productivity gains, and stronger margins while moving beyond losses. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers could sustain sector support; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove it.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, VSTS has evidence of improving execution, but its loss-making status, elevated risks, and expensive valuation make the thesis dependent on sustained progress and sector conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.