UGI Corp (UGI)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.49-0.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge UGI Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	2.2B
EPS	—	1.33
FY 2026 · Annual
EPS	$2.75–$2.9non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.84B
EPS	—	3.235
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.09B
EPS	—	3.501

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation and debt management	A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Issue ~€300M senior notes and accept $175M and $468M tender offers in 2026-Q2.	Improving	Failure to complete planned debt refinancing and tender offers in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed debt transactions including issuing €300 million senior notes in 2026-Q1 and tender offers for $175 million of 2028 notes in 2026-Q2, reducing borrowing costs by approximately $30 million annually. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation and active debt management delivering on stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain strong operational cash flow	A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $664M in 2026-Q2.	Broken	Cash from operations falls below $664M in 2026-Q2	Cash from operations: $242M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $664M in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026242,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities rose significantly from $66 million in 2026-Q1 to $664 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating improved operational cash flow. The trajectory is delivering on management's focus to enhance cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain profitability and grow EPS	A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EPS between $2.75 and $2.90 in 2026-Q2.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.75 in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.90 and reported year-to-date adjusted diluted EPS of $3.17 as of 2026-Q2. EBIT growth of 5% in total reportable segments in 2026-Q1 aligns with this guidance, indicating delivery on profitability and EPS growth priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankSep 29

$46.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$25.30$50.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital allocation and debt managementDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain strong operational cash flowPublished status: Broken
Maintain profitability and grow EPSDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

UGI Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

UGI is a utility-linked business with a value-oriented, execution-sensitive thesis rather than a clear growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results are neutral, while management priorities are on track and company momentum has weakened.

What's priced into UGI Corp

UGI is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence describes expectations as justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the valuation does not appear to reflect a strong optimism buffer.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, operating cash flow has improved, debt transactions are reducing borrowing costs, and management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. However, earnings quality is fragile, recent performance trails its industry cohort, and earnings surprises have been trending down despite a low stated miss risk.

What UGI Corp hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on management sustaining cash flow, profitability, and disciplined debt management. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector peers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, UGI combines a cheap valuation with signs of operational and debt-management progress, but weaker momentum and fragile execution remain important limits. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.