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Terex (TEX)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$51.29-1.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Terex’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.98 → 5.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	1.205
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$7.5B–$8.1B	8.14B
EPS	$4.5–$5	4.993
EBITDA	$930M–$1B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.76B
EPS	—	5.925

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Terex maintains dividend at $0.17 per share	Profit margins and free cash flow targets are stable, supporting earnings near $4.75 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.17	Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $0.17. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d912c887-477b-4cdf-ba77-6412f0561039. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Terex achieves free cash flow margin near 0.8-0.9%	Profit margins and free cash flow targets are stable, supporting earnings near $4.75 per share.	Improving	free cash flow margin falls below 0.3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Terex improves operating income from Q1 2026 loss	A primary condition in Terex's published investment case. The stated target is operating income returns to positive by FY26 end.	Under Pressure	operating income remains negative through FY26	Operating income: $187M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income returns to positive by FY26 end. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026187,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d912c887-477b-4cdf-ba77-6412f0561039. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Terex achieves at least $7.85B revenue in FY26	A primary condition in Terex's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.85 billion.	Under Pressure	annual revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.238B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.85 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262,238,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d912c887-477b-4cdf-ba77-6412f0561039. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.92

$5.81 → $5.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.76B

$8.53B → $8.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.80	$8,539,782,569	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-07-29	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.80	$8,539,782,569	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.81	$8,534,049,620	14 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.84	$8,643,505,631	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.88	$8,703,003,790	14 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.88	$8,703,003,790	14 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.88	$8,703,003,790	14 / 12
2026-08-05	$5.96	$8,735,567,040	14 / 12
2026-08-06	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.96	$8,735,567,040	14 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.96	$8,735,567,040	14 / 12
2026-08-10	$5.96	$8,735,567,040	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.87	$8,690,714,722	11 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-30	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-08-31	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-01	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-02	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-05	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-06	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-07	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-08	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-09	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-10	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-12	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-13	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-14	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-15	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-16	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-17	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-18	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-19	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-20	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-21	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-22	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-23	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-24	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-25	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-26	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-27	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-09-30	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-10-03	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-10-04	$5.98	$8,787,470,959	11 / 11
2026-10-05	$5.96	$8,779,660,959	11 / 11
2026-10-06	$5.96	$8,779,660,959	11 / 11
2026-10-07	$5.96	$8,782,060,959	11 / 11
2026-10-08	$5.96	$8,782,060,959	11 / 11
2026-10-09	$5.96	$8,782,060,959	11 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.95	$8,757,964,155	11 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.95	$8,757,964,155	11 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.95	$8,757,964,155	11 / 11
2026-10-13	$5.94	$8,758,350,247	11 / 11
2026-10-14	$5.94	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-15	$5.94	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-16	$5.94	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-17	$5.94	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-18	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-19	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-20	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-21	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$5.92	$8,764,891,274	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	4	1
2026-06-01	9	5	1
2026-07-01	9	5	1
2026-08-01	9	4	1
2026-09-01	9	4	1
2026-10-01	9	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 2

$92.00 → $85.00-7.6%

$0$50.60$101.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Terex maintains dividend at $0.17 per shareDividend per share: $0.17 per share
Terex achieves free cash flow margin near 0.8-0.9%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Terex improves operating income from Q1 2026 lossPublished status: Under Pressure
Terex achieves at least $7.85B revenue in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Terex outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical industrial business with an acquisition-led growth element, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is supported by higher guidance and a stronger second quarter, but execution quality remains fragile and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Terex

TEX is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a negative expectations gap, meaning current expectations appear below the model’s view. The evidence also labels the current pricing as justified, with low fragility, so the peer discount does not by itself establish that expectations are unusually pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: operating income improved substantially from the first to the second quarter, and management raised 2026 sales guidance, but recent momentum and quality measures have weakened. Over the multi-year view, growth depends on integrating REV and delivering stated synergies; reported figures show progress in revenue and consolidated operating income, but do not verify the synergy milestones or added capacity.

What Terex hinges on

A key near-term risk is whether TEX has to reverse its recent guidance increase, which would also challenge management credibility. The sector backdrop is another swing factor: continued strong results from industrial peers could support the operating environment, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.