Stoneridge Inc (SRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$7.22-0.82%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Stoneridge aims for $645M to $670M revenue in 2026. Profit margin should reach near break-even to 0.5%. A new CFO may improve execution. The company is correcting but not broken.
Revenue is expected to fall about 15% next year. The company lost money last year. Profit margins remain thin and uncertain.
The market expects about 15% revenue decline and continued losses. Our fair value is near $22.72, reflecting these challenges. We see risk if revenue or margins worsen beyond expectations.
Breaks if: Margin falls below 0%
Breaks if: No improvement or worsening execution under new CFO
Full-year revenue falls below $645 million
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth scenario. The company is currently loss-making and has volatile management, which adds to the uncertainty in the near term.
The market seems to have priced in a low valuation compared to peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat muted. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for recovery or growth.
Management is on track with key priorities, particularly in achieving revenue growth and improving operating margins, though the margin target shows mixed progress. However, there is a high risk of missing earnings expectations in the near term due to recent performance trends.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue and margin targets, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Positive earnings from sector bellwethers could provide a lift, while any guidance cuts or inflation spikes could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss negatively impacted the outlook for SRI. This miss indicates ongoing challenges in financial performance, which is below industry peers.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SRI's performance will depend heavily on execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.