SAP SE (SAP)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-16

$224.29-0.32%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SAP SE’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.28 → 8.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow generation to remain strong	Profit margins remain strong, supporting solid free cash flow generation.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $9 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: EUR 3.038B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 28, 20263,038,000,000 EUR · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain profit margins near 15%	Profit margins remain strong, supporting solid free cash flow generation.	Intact	Profit margins fall below 12% in FY26	Net margin: 22.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202622.069245 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to reach ~$40.7 billion	A primary condition in SAP SE's published investment case. The stated target is ~$40.7 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below ~$38 billion in FY26	Revenue: EUR 9.878B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$40.7 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 28, 20269,878,000,000 EUR · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.52

$9.86 → $8.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$45.66B

$44.86B → $45.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.86	$44,864,638,370	7 / 15
2026-07-25	$9.75	$44,941,766,400	10 / 20
2026-07-26	$9.75	$44,941,766,400	10 / 20
2026-07-27	$9.71	$44,945,422,490	10 / 21
2026-07-28	$9.71	$44,945,422,490	10 / 21
2026-07-29	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-07-30	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-07-31	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-01	$8.26	$44,820,263,551	11 / 18
2026-08-02	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-03	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-04	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-05	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-06	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-08	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-09	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-10	$9.60	$45,021,719,370	10 / 23
2026-08-12	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-13	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-14	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-15	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-16	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-17	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-18	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-19	$8.27	$45,001,075,489	11 / 18
2026-08-20	$8.25	$44,766,399,365	11 / 19
2026-08-21	$8.25	$44,766,399,365	12 / 19
2026-08-22	$8.27	$44,859,430,697	12 / 19
2026-08-23	$8.27	$44,857,840,544	12 / 19
2026-08-24	$8.27	$44,857,840,544	12 / 19
2026-08-25	$8.27	$44,857,840,544	12 / 19
2026-08-26	$8.27	$44,857,310,493	12 / 19
2026-08-27	$8.27	$44,857,310,493	12 / 19
2026-08-28	$8.27	$44,857,310,493	12 / 19
2026-08-29	$8.28	$44,897,508,802	12 / 19
2026-08-30	$8.28	$44,897,508,802	12 / 19
2026-08-31	$8.28	$44,897,508,802	12 / 19
2026-09-01	$8.28	$44,897,508,802	11 / 19
2026-09-02	$8.28	$44,933,116,092	11 / 19
2026-09-03	$8.28	$44,933,116,092	11 / 19
2026-09-04	$8.28	$44,933,116,092	11 / 19
2026-09-05	$8.28	$44,933,116,092	11 / 19
2026-09-06	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-07	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-08	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-09	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-10	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-11	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-12	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-13	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-14	$8.28	$44,921,633,938	11 / 19
2026-09-15	$8.28	$44,935,790,466	11 / 19
2026-09-16	$8.28	$44,923,815,086	11 / 19
2026-09-17	$8.27	$44,948,733,967	11 / 19
2026-09-18	$8.27	$44,948,733,967	11 / 19
2026-09-19	$8.27	$44,948,733,967	11 / 19
2026-09-20	$8.27	$44,948,733,967	11 / 19
2026-09-21	$8.23	$44,727,666,192	11 / 19
2026-09-22	$8.24	$44,797,829,523	11 / 19
2026-09-23	$8.27	$44,949,894,762	11 / 19
2026-09-24	$8.27	$44,949,894,762	11 / 19
2026-09-25	$8.29	$45,037,295,845	11 / 19
2026-09-26	$8.29	$45,044,424,224	11 / 19
2026-09-27	$8.29	$45,044,424,224	11 / 19
2026-09-28	$8.32	$45,185,323,034	11 / 19
2026-09-29	$8.33	$45,245,338,987	11 / 19
2026-09-30	$8.33	$45,245,338,987	11 / 19
2026-10-01	$8.34	$45,354,621,035	11 / 19
2026-10-02	$8.37	$45,490,130,773	11 / 19
2026-10-03	$8.37	$45,467,502,961	11 / 19
2026-10-04	$8.37	$45,503,330,331	11 / 19
2026-10-05	$8.38	$45,563,328,317	11 / 19
2026-10-06	$8.38	$45,498,179,007	11 / 19
2026-10-07	$8.37	$45,422,585,793	11 / 19
2026-10-08	$8.37	$45,422,585,793	11 / 19
2026-10-09	$8.36	$45,395,540,731	11 / 19
2026-10-10	$8.36	$45,395,540,731	11 / 19
2026-10-11	$8.36	$45,370,179,103	11 / 19
2026-10-12	$8.38	$45,439,652,430	11 / 19
2026-10-13	$8.48	$45,428,502,938	11 / 19
2026-10-14	$8.50	$45,539,668,796	11 / 19
2026-10-15	$8.50	$45,580,557,388	11 / 19
2026-10-16	$8.52	$45,661,082,542	11 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	3
2026-06-01	13	3
2026-07-01	13	4
2026-08-01	14	3
2026-09-01	13	3
2026-10-01	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Jul 27

$242.00 → $243.00+0.4%

BMO CapitalOct 8 · prior Jul 24

$177.00 → $235.00+32.8%

JefferiesSep 22

$260.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$143.00$286.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow generation to remain strongFree cash flow: EUR 3.038B
Maintain profit margins near 15%Net margin: 22.07%
Revenue growth to reach ~$40.7 billionRevenue: EUR 9.878B

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SAP SE outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the tech sector. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, despite a recent price reaction trending upward.

What's priced into SAP SE

The market currently reflects a fair valuation for SAP, with low fragility in its pricing. There are no significant signs of fragility in the current market regime, which suggests that expectations are stable.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term, as SAP has a low probability of missing earnings but has recently experienced consecutive misses. This ongoing trend could impact investor sentiment and performance moving forward.

What SAP SE hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the actions of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers like CRM, NOW, and SNOW. Positive movements in these areas could provide a tailwind for SAP, while negative trends could weigh on its performance.