RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (RYAAY)

NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.53-2.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.35B
EPS	—	-0.013
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	16.17B
EPS	—	3.352
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	17.72B
EPS	—	3.198

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS meets or exceeds analyst consensus	Analysts expect earnings per share around $4.62 in fiscal 2027 and $5.30 in fiscal 2028.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.62 in FY27 or $5.30 in FY28	Diluted EPS: EUR 1.02 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.62 in FY27 and >= $5.30 in FY28. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 20, 20261.02 EUR/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operational disruptions remain limited and do not reduce bookings	A supporting condition in RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is Operational disruptions do not increase materially beyond current levels.	Under Pressure	Operational issues worsen significantly, reducing bookings and revenue	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Passenger numbers continue to grow or hold near record levels	Ryanair keeps growing passenger numbers, hitting new monthly records.	Intact	Passenger numbers fall below recent monthly record levels next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
No further rulings that materially reduce add-on fees or increase costs	A primary condition in RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is No new rulings that significantly cut add-on fees or mandate free hand luggage.	Under Pressure	Additional rulings force removal of key fees or increase operational costs materially	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$17.72B

$17.22B → $17.72B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$17,222,456,170	4 / 18
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$17,216,067,290	4 / 18
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$17,216,067,290	4 / 18
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$17,216,067,290	4 / 18
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$17,216,067,290	4 / 18
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$17,160,552,651	4 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$17,219,984,400	4 / 18
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$17,163,945,926	4 / 10
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$17,192,501,459	4 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.82	$17,202,402,416	5 / 11
2026-08-22	$3.82	$17,202,402,416	5 / 11
2026-08-23	$3.82	$17,202,402,416	5 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.82	$17,202,402,416	5 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.82	$17,202,402,416	5 / 11
2026-08-26	$3.81	$17,240,543,409	5 / 11
2026-08-27	$3.81	$17,240,543,409	5 / 11
2026-08-28	$3.81	$17,240,543,409	5 / 11
2026-08-29	$3.86	$17,245,683,855	5 / 11
2026-08-30	$3.86	$17,245,683,855	5 / 11
2026-08-31	$3.86	$17,245,683,855	5 / 11
2026-09-01	$3.86	$17,245,683,855	5 / 11
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$17,241,526,175	4 / 10
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$17,234,818,342	4 / 10
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$17,281,734,446	4 / 10
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$17,284,483,685	4 / 10
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$17,304,601,792	4 / 11
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$17,303,381,057	4 / 11
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$17,315,513,189	4 / 11
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$17,252,137,182	4 / 11
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$17,291,381,768	4 / 11
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$17,332,720,290	4 / 11
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$17,358,371,495	4 / 11
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$17,370,341,725	4 / 11
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$17,364,230,426	4 / 11
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$17,366,659,478	4 / 11
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$17,415,034,574	4 / 11
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$17,450,721,120	4 / 11
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$17,461,631,147	4 / 11
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$17,479,313,561	4 / 11
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$17,532,360,801	4 / 11
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$17,520,588,613	4 / 11
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$17,534,394,442	4 / 11
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$17,557,514,253	4 / 11
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$17,557,514,253	4 / 11
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$17,561,146,161	3 / 11
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$17,561,146,161	3 / 11
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$17,533,608,299	3 / 11
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$17,533,608,299	3 / 11
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$17,533,608,299	3 / 11
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$17,560,456,729	3 / 11
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$17,589,844,876	3 / 11
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$17,632,888,121	3 / 11
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$17,636,241,197	3 / 11
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$17,698,755,195	3 / 11
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$17,698,755,195	3 / 11
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$17,698,755,195	4 / 11
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$17,698,755,195	4 / 11
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$17,698,755,195	4 / 11
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$17,721,709,591	4 / 11
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$17,721,709,591	4 / 11
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$17,721,709,591	4 / 11
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$17,721,709,591	4 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	5	0
2026-08-01	6	0
2026-09-01	6	0
2026-10-01	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS meets or exceeds analyst consensusDiluted EPS: EUR 1.02 per share
Operational disruptions remain limited and do not reduce bookingsPublished status: Under Pressure
Passenger numbers continue to grow or hold near record levelsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
No further rulings that materially reduce add-on fees or increase costsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical, sector-sensitive business case, but the evidence is too thin to classify it more firmly. The long-term thesis state is insufficient, and confidence in the overall read is low.

What's priced into RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC

The snapshot gives no valuation level or peer comparison, so it does not show whether expectations are cheap, fair, or expensive. It reports low fragility, meaning its checks found no specific concentration of risk in what is priced in, but that does not clarify market expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company has a run of earnings misses and missed its most recent quarter, though the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, the evidence does not provide enough recent financial history to assess the underlying trajectory; the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC hinges on

Near-term sector signals include whether DAL, UAL, and LUV continue to report strong earnings and guidance, or begin to miss and guide lower. The multi-year view also depends on economic growth: a material slowdown from 2.2% to below 2% is flagged as a particular risk for this growth-sensitive sector.