RxSight, Inc. (RXST)

Q: What's priced into RxSight, Inc. (RXST) stock?

The valuation evidence points to RXST being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The model has low confidence, so that relative discount is not a clear signal that the business risks are fully reflected in expectations.

Q: What does the RxSight, Inc. (RXST) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis depends on delivering the 2026 revenue and margin goals while keeping expenses controlled. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.02-1.18%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RxSight, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	55.2M
EPS	—	0.031
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	147.04M
EPS	—	-0.944
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	149.12M
EPS	—	-1.165

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Develop and commercialize light-adjustable lenses with Alcon	A supporting condition in RxSight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful product development and commercialization with Alcon.	Improving	The Alcon collaboration fails or is delayed beyond 1 year	Qualitative: Alcon deal signed (Jun 2026), adds $30-40M to 2026 rev RxSight signed a definitive agreement with Alcon on June 30, 2026, to develop light-adjustable lenses, boosting 2026 revenue outlook. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q2 and a July 2026 press release. The collaboration with Alcon includes up to $200 million upfront and milestone payments, with product pipeline updates on next-generation lenses. This reflects a strategic growth initiative with ongoing development and commercialization efforts, showing active progress but early in trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 71% in 2026	Gross margin should stay near 71%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 70% in FY26	Gross margin: 76.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 70% to 72%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202676.719718 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control operating expenses within $150 to $160 million in 2026	They control costs within $150 to $160 million.	Intact	Operating expenses exceed $160 million in FY26	Operating margin: -40.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating expenses <= $160 million. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 5, 2026-40.810883 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 50a8ed2f-0326-42ca-9add-7916214a838f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Operating expense control stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, and 2025-Q4. Management expects 2026 operating expenses at the high end of $150-$160 million, consistent with prior guidance. Q2 2026 operating expenses were $39.7 million, slightly above $39.2 million in Q2 2025, indicating stable expense levels and disciplined spending aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue of $120 to $135 million in 2026	A primary condition in RxSight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $120 million and <= $135 million.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $120 million in FY26	Revenue: $33.741M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $120 million and <= $135 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202633,741,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 50a8ed2f-0326-42ca-9add-7916214a838f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.16

$-1.19 → $-1.16 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.15B

$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.19	$146,329,078	5 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-07-30	$-1.19	$146,329,078	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-03	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-05	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$-0.67	$144,947,290	5 / 10
2026-08-08	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-12	$-0.70	$149,375,110	5 / 10
2026-08-13	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-15	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-16	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-17	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-18	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-19	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-20	$-1.17	$149,336,273	5 / 8
2026-08-21	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-23	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-24	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-25	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-30	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-31	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-01	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-02	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-03	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-04	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-05	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-06	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-07	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-08	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-09	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-10	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-11	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-12	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-13	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-14	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-15	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-16	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-17	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-18	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-19	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-20	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-25	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-26	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-27	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-28	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-29	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-30	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-01	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-02	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-03	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-04	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-05	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-06	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-07	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-08	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-09	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-10	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-11	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-12	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-13	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-14	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-15	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-16	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-17	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-18	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-24	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	6	2
2026-06-01	1	6	2
2026-07-01	1	7	2
2026-08-01	1	7	2
2026-09-01	1	7	2
2026-10-01	1	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin near 71% in 2026Gross margin: 76.72%
Control operating expenses within $150 to $160 million in 2026Operating margin: -40.81%
Achieve revenue of $120 to $135 million in 2026Revenue: $33.741M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RxSight, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth business with fragile earnings quality and a loss-making profile. Management’s 2026 revenue and gross-margin goals are on track, but recent performance remains weak versus its industry cohort, so the long-term thesis is not yet firmly established.

What's priced into RxSight, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to RXST being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The model has low confidence, so that relative discount is not a clear signal that the business risks are fully reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 revenue guidance includes $30 million to $40 million from the Alcon collaboration, and its gross-margin guidance rose to 73% to 75% after a 76.7% Q2 result. Expense control is mixed, with management expecting costs at the high end of its range; weak recent performance and erratic earnings results remain risks.

What RxSight, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on delivering the 2026 revenue and margin goals while keeping expenses controlled. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, RXST has a growth opportunity supported by its collaboration and a favorable sector backdrop, but execution risk and weak recent performance leave the thesis in a watch state. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	55.2M
EPS	—	0.031
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	147.04M
EPS	—	-0.944
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	149.12M
EPS	—	-1.165

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.16

$-1.19 → $-1.16 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.15B

$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.19	$146,329,078	5 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$146,334,050	4 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-07-30	$-1.19	$146,329,078	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-03	$-1.19	$145,098,710	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-05	$-0.67	$145,103,180	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$-0.67	$144,947,290	5 / 10
2026-08-08	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$-0.74	$148,199,110	5 / 10
2026-08-12	$-0.70	$149,375,110	5 / 10
2026-08-13	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-15	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-16	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-17	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-18	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-19	$-1.19	$149,792,485	5 / 8
2026-08-20	$-1.17	$149,336,273	5 / 8
2026-08-21	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-23	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-24	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-25	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-30	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-08-31	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-01	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-02	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-03	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-04	$-1.17	$149,331,913	5 / 8
2026-09-05	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-06	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-07	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-08	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-09	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-10	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-11	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-12	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-13	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-14	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-15	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-16	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-17	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-18	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-19	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-20	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$-1.17	$149,333,743	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-25	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-26	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-27	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-28	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-29	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-09-30	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-01	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-02	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-03	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-04	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-05	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-06	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-07	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-08	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-09	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-10	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-11	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-12	$-1.17	$149,113,743	5 / 8
2026-10-13	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-14	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-15	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-16	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-17	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-18	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8
2026-10-24	$-1.16	$149,118,103	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings