REVOLUTION Medicines Inc (RVMD)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$186.99-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge REVOLUTION Medicines Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	183.96M
EPS	—	-1.898
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	208.04M
EPS	—	-9.488
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	-5.791

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital with $500 million convertible notes issued	The company raised $500 million with convertible notes.	Intact	Failure to maintain capital or repay convertible notes	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Limit cash burn; improve cash from operations	A primary condition in REVOLUTION Medicines Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations better than -$354 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Cash flow from operations falls below -$354 million next year	Cash from operations: $-387.319M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations better than -$354 million in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-387,319,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating expenses within $1.7 to $1.8 billion in 2026	They plan $1.7 to $1.8 billion in expenses for 2026.	Broken	Operating expenses exceed $1.8 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised 2026 GAAP operating expense guidance from $1.7-$1.8B in Q1 to $2.1-$2.2B in Q2, reflecting higher stock-based compensation. Operating expenses increased from $445.2M in Q1 to $505.1M in Q2. The trajectory shows rising expenses consistent with updated guidance, indicating management is managing within the revised range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-5.79

$-5.86 → $-5.79 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.23B

$0.90B → $1.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-5.86	$897,445,510	17 / 19
2026-07-25	$-5.41	$845,754,047	16 / 14
2026-07-26	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-07-27	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-07-28	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-07-29	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-07-30	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-07-31	$-5.30	$861,113,047	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$-5.30	$861,113,047	15 / 14
2026-08-02	$-5.30	$861,113,047	15 / 14
2026-08-03	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-08-04	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-08-05	$-5.30	$861,113,047	15 / 14
2026-08-06	$-5.80	$881,228,590	17 / 18
2026-08-08	$-5.95	$967,623,240	18 / 18
2026-08-09	$-6.37	$960,515,654	15 / 14
2026-08-10	$-6.37	$960,515,654	15 / 14
2026-08-12	$-6.37	$960,515,654	15 / 14
2026-08-13	$-6.83	$975,511,020	18 / 19
2026-08-14	$-6.37	$960,515,654	15 / 14
2026-08-15	$-6.37	$960,515,654	15 / 14
2026-08-16	$-6.37	$960,515,654	16 / 14
2026-08-17	$-6.37	$960,515,654	16 / 14
2026-08-18	$-6.37	$960,515,654	16 / 14
2026-08-19	$-6.37	$960,515,654	16 / 14
2026-08-20	$-6.64	$901,450,587	17 / 15
2026-08-21	$-6.64	$901,450,587	16 / 15
2026-08-22	$-6.69	$901,462,410	16 / 14
2026-08-23	$-6.69	$901,462,410	16 / 15
2026-08-24	$-6.69	$901,462,410	16 / 15
2026-08-25	$-6.69	$905,436,721	16 / 15
2026-08-26	$-6.69	$905,436,721	16 / 14
2026-08-27	$-6.69	$905,436,721	16 / 14
2026-08-28	$-6.69	$905,436,721	16 / 14
2026-08-29	$-5.83	$1,116,715,319	16 / 15
2026-08-30	$-5.83	$1,116,715,319	16 / 15
2026-08-31	$-5.83	$1,116,715,319	17 / 16
2026-09-01	$-5.74	$1,142,384,903	17 / 16
2026-09-02	$-5.74	$1,142,384,903	17 / 16
2026-09-03	$-5.74	$1,142,384,903	17 / 16
2026-09-04	$-5.74	$1,142,361,903	17 / 16
2026-09-05	$-5.74	$1,142,361,903	17 / 16
2026-09-06	$-5.74	$1,142,361,903	17 / 16
2026-09-07	$-5.74	$1,142,361,903	17 / 16
2026-09-08	$-5.74	$1,142,361,903	17 / 16
2026-09-09	$-5.77	$1,134,382,009	17 / 16
2026-09-10	$-5.77	$1,134,382,009	17 / 16
2026-09-11	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	16 / 15
2026-09-12	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	16 / 15
2026-09-13	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	17 / 16
2026-09-14	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	17 / 16
2026-09-15	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	17 / 16
2026-09-16	$-5.99	$1,161,261,198	17 / 16
2026-09-17	$-5.99	$1,161,261,218	17 / 16
2026-09-18	$-5.99	$1,161,261,218	17 / 16
2026-09-19	$-5.99	$1,161,261,218	17 / 16
2026-09-20	$-5.99	$1,161,261,218	17 / 16
2026-09-21	$-5.99	$1,161,261,218	17 / 16
2026-09-22	$-5.93	$1,176,826,633	17 / 16
2026-09-23	$-5.93	$1,176,826,633	17 / 16
2026-09-24	$-5.93	$1,176,826,633	17 / 16
2026-09-25	$-6.02	$1,173,758,317	17 / 16
2026-09-26	$-6.02	$1,173,758,317	17 / 17
2026-09-27	$-6.02	$1,173,758,317	17 / 17
2026-09-28	$-6.02	$1,173,758,317	17 / 17
2026-09-29	$-6.02	$1,173,758,317	17 / 17
2026-09-30	$-5.98	$1,180,489,575	18 / 17
2026-10-01	$-5.89	$1,182,703,365	18 / 18
2026-10-02	$-5.89	$1,182,703,365	18 / 17
2026-10-03	$-5.89	$1,182,703,365	18 / 17
2026-10-04	$-5.89	$1,182,703,365	18 / 17
2026-10-05	$-5.89	$1,182,704,031	18 / 17
2026-10-06	$-5.89	$1,182,704,031	18 / 17
2026-10-07	$-5.78	$1,202,035,666	19 / 18
2026-10-08	$-5.78	$1,202,304,257	19 / 18
2026-10-09	$-5.78	$1,202,304,257	19 / 18
2026-10-10	$-5.79	$1,204,158,345	18 / 18
2026-10-11	$-5.79	$1,204,158,345	18 / 18
2026-10-12	$-5.79	$1,204,158,345	18 / 18
2026-10-13	$-5.72	$1,228,568,335	18 / 18
2026-10-14	$-5.72	$1,228,568,335	18 / 18
2026-10-15	$-5.72	$1,228,568,335	18 / 18
2026-10-16	$-5.72	$1,228,591,062	18 / 18
2026-10-17	$-5.72	$1,228,591,062	18 / 18
2026-10-18	$-5.88	$1,219,782,755	19 / 19
2026-10-19	$-5.88	$1,219,782,755	19 / 19
2026-10-20	$-5.87	$1,224,557,755	19 / 19
2026-10-21	$-5.87	$1,224,557,755	19 / 19
2026-10-22	$-5.83	$1,226,939,929	19 / 19
2026-10-23	$-5.79	$1,232,766,395	19 / 19
2026-10-24	$-5.79	$1,232,766,395	19 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	21	1
2026-06-01	21	1
2026-07-01	22	1
2026-08-01	21	1
2026-09-01	23	1
2026-10-01	24	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 19 · prior Oct 7

$240.00 → $241.00+0.4%

RBC CapitalOct 14 · prior Oct 8

$259.00 → $260.00+0.4%

Loop Capital MarketsSep 28

$318.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$174.90$349.80

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital with $500 million convertible notes issuedDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Limit cash burn; improve cash from operationsCash from operations: $-387.319M
Manage operating expenses within $1.7 to $1.8 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

REVOLUTION Medicines Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-development business, with value tied to advancing drug candidates and building the ability to commercialize them. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has made progress on key priorities, while recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is loss-making.

What's priced into REVOLUTION Medicines Inc

The evidence gives no direct valuation measure or clear account of what market expectations assume, so relative valuation and the expectations gap are hard to assess. No pricing fragility signals fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, regulatory progress for daraxonrasib and ongoing trials for zoldonrasib and elironrasib are important sources of potential business progress. Management reports U.S. launch readiness and expanded global commercial capabilities, though their financial impact is not quantified. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated miss risk weigh on the setup; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.

What REVOLUTION Medicines Inc hinges on

The thesis hinges on continued clinical and regulatory progress, including daraxonrasib’s path through approval and the progress of other candidates in trials. Near term, guidance and earnings execution matter, while broader Healthcare-sector momentum could help the backdrop. Weaker jobs data could add recession concerns and pressure the sector.