Royal Gold (RGLD)

NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-10-23

$227.42-3.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Royal Gold’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.90 → 12.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	478.57M
EPS	—	2.642
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.85B
EPS	—	10.504
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	12.73

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital allocation flexibility with buybacks and tools	Capital tools like share buybacks add flexibility.	Improving	Capital allocation tools reduced or share repurchases halted	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Dividend per share grows at least 6% annually	A supporting condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% annual increase.	Intact	Dividend growth falls below 6% annually	Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% annual increase. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 6, 20260.475 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9c01d595-bcf2-4790-ae08-d1d1c4e89c9f. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. The quarterly dividend per share increased from $0.45 in 2025-Q2 to $0.475 in 2026-Q2, consistent with management's stated commitment to a growing, sustainable dividend. The trajectory is delivering on the stated per-share increase. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin stays between 17% and 22% in FY26	A primary condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is 17% to 22%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 17% in FY26	Gross margin: 64.61% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 17% to 22%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202664.60706 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9c01d595-bcf2-4790-ae08-d1d1c4e89c9f. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $1.93 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Royal Gold's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.93 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.93 billion in FY26	Revenue: $450.539M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.93 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026450,539,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9c01d595-bcf2-4790-ae08-d1d1c4e89c9f. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.73

$13.29 → $12.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.10B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.29	$2,095,297,760	11 / 5
2026-07-25	$13.10	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-26	$13.10	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-27	$13.10	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-28	$13.16	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-29	$13.07	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-30	$12.82	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$12.82	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$12.82	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$13.07	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-03	$13.07	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-08-04	$12.81	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$12.81	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$12.81	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$13.16	$2,229,999,390	11 / 6
2026-08-09	$13.16	$2,229,999,390	11 / 6
2026-08-10	$13.16	$2,229,999,390	11 / 6
2026-08-12	$12.93	$2,232,067,100	11 / 6
2026-08-13	$12.93	$2,232,067,100	11 / 6
2026-08-14	$12.84	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$12.84	$2,180,883,781	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$12.84	$2,180,883,781	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$12.84	$2,180,883,781	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$12.84	$2,180,883,781	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$12.84	$2,180,883,781	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$12.94	$2,152,378,063	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$12.94	$2,152,378,063	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$12.94	$2,152,378,063	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$12.94	$2,152,378,063	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$12.94	$2,152,378,063	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$12.94	$2,152,377,687	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$12.94	$2,152,377,687	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$12.94	$2,152,377,687	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$12.94	$2,152,377,687	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$12.94	$2,152,420,275	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$12.85	$2,140,086,942	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$12.85	$2,140,086,942	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$12.85	$2,140,086,942	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$12.85	$2,140,086,942	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$12.85	$2,140,086,942	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$12.90	$2,140,086,942	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$12.89	$2,140,086,942	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$12.89	$2,138,181,686	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$12.89	$2,138,181,686	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$12.89	$2,138,181,686	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$12.94	$2,146,209,987	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$12.94	$2,146,209,987	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$12.94	$2,146,209,987	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$12.88	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$12.88	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$12.88	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$12.88	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$12.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$12.73	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	2	1
2026-06-01	9	2	1
2026-07-01	9	2	1
2026-08-01	9	2	1
2026-09-01	9	2	1
2026-10-01	9	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 20

$336.00New observation · no comparable prior

CIBCOct 16

$305.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$184.80$369.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital allocation flexibility with buybacks and toolsQualitative condition
Dividend per share grows at least 6% annuallyDividend per share: $0.47 per share
Gross margin stays between 17% and 22% in FY26Gross margin: 64.61%
Revenue grows to at least $1.93 billion in FY26Revenue: $450.539M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Royal Gold outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a portfolio-growth and capital-return thesis, with management investing in growth opportunities, reducing debt, and raising the dividend. The multi-year view is intact, but elevated risk and low confidence make execution important.

What's priced into Royal Gold

The valuation is tagged as stretched, at a 1.51 premium versus peers, though the expectations gap is modest. The evidence points to some re-rating in expectations, but confidence in the valuation assessment is low and fragility is rated low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, and management is on track with portfolio investment, debt repayment, liquidity, and dividend growth. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and an elevated miss risk leave guidance vulnerable; the broader sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What Royal Gold hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would weaken the execution case. Over the multi-year view, portfolio investments need to support growth, while earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could either sustain or remove a sector tailwind.