Remitly (RELY)

NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.82-1.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Remitly’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	532.3M
EPS	—	0.183
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	1.492
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.37B
EPS	—	1.067

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Leadership stability and confidence	A supporting condition in Remitly's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership departures or insider selling in 2026.	Under Pressure	Key executives resign or sell large shares in 2026	1 executive departure + 2 insider sales vs 0 allowed CPO resignation and insider selling events occurred in 2026, violating the stability target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026	The company keeps positive GAAP net income.	Intact	Net income falls below $40 million in any quarter of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $64.0M in 2025-Q2 to $114.7M in 2026-Q2 (+79%). Management expects full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $410M to $415M, up from $225M to $230M in 2025. Net income also improved, with 2026-Q2 net income at $205.9M including a tax benefit, compared to $6.5M in 2025-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Maintain positive GAAP net income in 2026	The company keeps positive GAAP net income.	Intact	GAAP net income turns negative for any quarter in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP net income improved from $6.5M in 2025-Q2 to $205.9M in 2026-Q2, including a $140.6M tax benefit. Net income was positive in each quarter of 2026 reported so far, consistent with management's commitment to maintain positive GAAP net income. The trajectory shows delivering positive profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Achieve 20-21% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Remitly's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.96B total revenue in 2026.	Intact	Annual revenue growth falls below 15% in 2026	Revenue: $495.156M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.96B total revenue in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026495,156,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a0110bb5-6d35-45c7-80f5-e8c40a49853a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $361.6M in 2025-Q1 to $495.2M in 2026-Q2 (+37%), with guidance for full-year 2026 revenue at $1.978B to $1.988B, representing 21% to 22% growth year over year. Quarterly guidance for Q3 2026 is $505M to $507M, up 20% to 21%. The trajectory is delivering and consistent with management's stated growth targets. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$2.37B

$2.35B → $2.37B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,352,720,143	4 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,352,720,143	4 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,352,720,143	4 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,349,660,150	4 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,351,182,370	4 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,368,681,400	3 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,372,603,620	3 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,364,946,135	4 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,372,959,386	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,372,817,986	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,373,902,786	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,373,132,271	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,373,132,271	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,373,132,271	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,373,132,271	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,373,128,006	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,373,128,006	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,373,128,006	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,373,130,903	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,373,130,903	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,373,130,903	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,373,130,903	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,373,144,403	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,373,144,403	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,373,148,483	4 / 7
2026-10-25	Unavailable	$2,373,148,483	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	0	0
2026-06-01	10	0	0
2026-07-01	10	0	0
2026-08-01	10	0	0
2026-09-01	10	0	0
2026-10-01	10	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Leadership stability and confidencePublished status: Under Pressure
Increase net income and Adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain positive GAAP net income in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 20-21% revenue growth in 2026Revenue: $495.156M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Remitly outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RELY is a high-growth financials business with a strong recent operating record, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view remains intact, but company momentum has weakened and the risk level is elevated.

What's priced into Remitly

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 31% premium, while the evidence describes expectations as generally justified and fragility as low. The expectations gap is modest at 9%, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the degree of optimism already reflected in the valuation is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong execution: second-quarter 2026 revenue was up 37% year over year, and management’s full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance points to continued growth. Positive GAAP net income is less clear as a signal because second-quarter results included a large tax benefit; earnings surprises have also been erratic and trending down, despite recent earnings beats.

What Remitly hinges on

The near-term thesis hinges on management maintaining guidance and delivering its 2026 growth and profitability priorities. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results from financials peers could support sector momentum; rate cuts are a stated sector risk.